Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
136 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ARE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S. RADAR SHOWS SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FROM
HUN AND POINTS EAST...PROBABLY DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND 80 KTS UPPER JET.

STRONG SFC CDFNT PUSHING THRU MO OUT OF A LOW OVER NRN IL. THINKING
FROM NOW THRU EARLY EVENING WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THEN AS CDFNT
APPROACHES NE AL BY LATE EVENING THE SVR THREAT WILL DROP OFF SOME
TO MORE OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. AS THE CDFNT
MOVES SE ACROSS OUR CWA...IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SRN GA/NRN FL. THIS WILL PROBABLY
LESSEN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH THE MOST RAIN
IN THE NWRN ZONES AND LESSOR AMOUNTS IN OUR SERN ZONES.

CDFNT THRU CWA BY WEDNESDAY MRNG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
PUSHING ACROSS OUR AREA. DONT THINK FROST WILL BE A PROBLEM
THURSDAY MRNG DUE TO WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. FRIDAY MRNG WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF FROST TO A MINIMUM. THE CLOUD
COVER ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ATTM BEST CHANCE OF FROST OR FREEZE LOOKS
TO BE THIS WEEKEND.

REST OF FCST LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    54  65  35  59 /  70  10   0   0
SHOALS        53  64  35  59 /  70  10   0   0
CULLMAN       55  65  36  60 /  70  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  54  63  34  57 /  70  10   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   56  65  36  59 /  70  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    55  64  34  58 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
103 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-041100-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
103 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SINCE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS RATHER
UNSTABLE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR A FROST OR LIGHT
FREEZE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE REQUESTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

PG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
306 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

TNZ097-032045-
FRANKLIN-
315 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINCHESTER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH ALONG HIGHWAY 64.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  BELVIDERE.
  TIMS FORD LAKE.
  WINCHESTER.
  DECHERD.
  ESTILL SPRINGS.
  OAK GROVE.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

PG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
310 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

TNZ097-032045-
FRANKLIN-
310 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINCHESTER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH ALONG HIGHWAY 64.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  BELVIDERE.
  TIMS FORD LAKE.
  WINCHESTER.
  DECHERD.
  ESTILL SPRINGS.
  OAK GROVE.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

PG

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