Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
205 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE HISTORIC HEAT AND DROUGHT WILL LIVE ON IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
AND REMAIN THE PRINCIPAL FORECAST ISSUES. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MORE ON THIS IN A MOMENT.

WE HAVE TIED OUR LONGEST STRETCH OF 100+ TEMPS AT KHSV...AND SHOULD
BREAK IT ON SATURDAY.  IM ALSO BECOMING MORE CONVINCED THAT WE WILL
SEE THIS STRETCH RUN INTO NEXT WEEK.  5H T-5D MEAN HEIGHTS SUGGEST
ANOTHER 594-595DKM HEIGHT CENTER REBUILDING ATOP AL AND GA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BREAKING WEAKENING SOME BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHING FROM JUST N OF KSNH THROUGH KMDQ TO JUST
S OF KRMG IS BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH CONVECTION.  CONVECTIVE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN REACHED...AND THREAT OF DOWNBURSTS IS FAIRLY GOOD
PER LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWING WINDEX ABOVE 60KT AND SB CAPES RUNNING GT
2500 J/KG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONCE AGAIN.  THE DROUGHT
IS ALSO LEAVING OUR TREES SUSCEPTIBLE TO BREAKING/FALLING MORE
EASILY.  WILL ADDRESS POPS CLOSER TO PRESS TIME...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO
LEAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY AFTER 00Z.

THE AIR DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT N OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS TN WHERE DEW
POINTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.  HOWEVER...THE TRUE COOL FRONT IS
CLOSER TO THE OH RIVER.  I DO EXPECT DECENT DRY ADVECTION OVERNIGHT
AS NE FLOW INCREASES PER FORECAST SOUNDING.  WE MAY SEE A SOMEWHAT
REFRESHING BREEZE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ON OUR RIDGE TOPS WITH
10-15KT FLOW.  WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN TN
AND OUR FAR NE AL COUNTIES.  WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO COOL DOWN
THAT READILY FURTHER S AND W.

SATURDAY SHOULD PROVE LESS HUMID...BUT THAT IS A TRADE OFF FOR MORE
HEAT AND TEMPS NEAR OR AT 100F.  WE SHOULD EASILY MIX DEEP ENOUGH
FOR DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE 50S...WHICH MAV GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS...WITH THE MET AND MET KEEPING IT TOO MOIST AND THUS COOLER.

.LONGER TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE MODELS BOTH INDICATE A MOIST SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT 925 MB...PER DEVELOPING LLJ AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM.  THIS HINTS AT POTENTIAL NOCTURNAL PRECIP...BUT
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT WITH CHANCES APPEARING QUITE LOW.  THIS AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SHIFT WELL TO OUR NORTH
BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE BECOMING ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT
THE SURFACE THROUGH 8H.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LOCAL AREA IN A LIGHT
S-SE MOIST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON MIXING LIKELY
DROPPING DEW POINTS DOWN EACH AFTERNOON...SO UNSURE IF WELL REACH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA NEXT WEEK.  I HAVE RAISED TEMPS TO THE
CENTURY MARK MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AGAIN PER POSITION OF THE RIDGE...AND
RECENT PERFORMANCE OF MEX/MEN GUIDANCE UNDERCUTTING HIGHS
CONSISTENTLY.  IT IS CONCEIVABLE WE WILL KEEP THE ONGOING 100+
CONSECUTIVE STREAK GOING.  THE ONLY WAYS I SEE THIS NOT HAPPENING
ARE POTENTIAL INCREASED HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE UPPER LOW TRACKING
WEST ACROSS FL AND INTO THE GOM THIS WEEKEND.  THIS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.  WITH AREA BENEATH THE 5H CENTER...WE
WILL KEEP POPS AOB 10 PERCENT ALL WEEK.  WISH I HAD BETTER
NEWS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    69 101  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        70 102  71  99 /  10  10  10  10
CULLMAN       72 100  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  68  99  72  99 /  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   70  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    66  98  71  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

KULA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-180400-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES...BUT INCREASED HUMIDITY COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE 105 TO 110 DEGREES.

HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE
FORM OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DJN/BCC

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