Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Huntsville, AL

000 
WWUS54 KHUN 262123
SVSHUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
422 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

ALC071-TNC051-262132-
/O.EXP.KHUN.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-070726T2130Z/
JACKSON AL-FRANKLIN TN-
422 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN AND NORTH
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 430 PM CDT...

WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE THUNDERSTORM THAT
PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE. THEREFORE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3512 8594 3492 8595 3496 8623 3508 8623
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 276DEG 4KT 3503 8609

$$

PG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1052 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

.UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING WEATHER IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 12Z U/A ANALYSIS CENTERS IT NEAR
DETROIT WITH SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAD BEEN LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
HAS BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. AT THIS POINT ONLY A BROAD MOISTURE
GRADIENT AND SLIGHT WIND SHIFT WERE NOTED ALONG A WEST TO EAST
BOUNDARY GENERALLY ALONG THE AL/TN STATE LINE. 15Z TEMPS WERE
RUNNING FROM 81 IN THE SHOALS AND AT RUSSELLVILLE TO 70 IN
SCOTTSBORO...WHERE HEATING HAS BEEN DELAYED BY SOME PESKY FOG
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

WV IMAGERY AND H5 PROFILER DATA SHOWS A WEAK LOBE OF ENERGY OVER
TENNESSEE SINKING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LAPS DATA SHOWS THE AXIS OF
HIGHEST INSTABILITY FROM NE MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MID TENNESSEE...AND
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES LINING UP IN THIS AREA
AS WELL. I BELIEVE THIS IS WHERE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION FIRE UP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY.

ALL IN ALL THE GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TARGET...SO NO
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO GRIDDED PRODUCTS OR ZONES AT THIS
TIME.

DL-16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WILL HAVE LESS AND LESS OF AN IMPACT ON LOCAL WX MOVING
INTO FRIDAY AS IT IS REABSORBED INTO THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS LITTLE TO FOCUS ON FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTN...THOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO FIRE OFF A FEW STORMS HERE AND THERE. GOING FCST
HAS A 20 POP FOR THE AFTN HOURS...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
LITTLE ELSE TO PINPOINT. WILL TREND WARMER FRIDAY ANTICIPATING
LITTLE IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY ONE LAST GASP FROM THE UPPER LOW AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN THE NW FLOW DRIVES A FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS SRN MID TN DURING THE
NIGHT...BUT THEN A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA STANDS A DECENT SHOT
OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT NEARING THE AREA SATURDAY. WITH THE AVAILABLE
FORCING AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...FEEL THE NAM IS BEING A BIT STINGY
WITH PCPN AND FEEL COMFORTABLE INCREASING TO A 50 POP. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT AND LINGERS NEAR THE
FCST AREA. WHILE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON GENERAL PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT...THE DETAILS ARE FUZZY WHICH MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE IF POPS WILL BE ENHANCED ACCORDINGLY. FOR THE TIME BEING
WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... LEAVING MONDAY
DRY AS THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW.

CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A DRY FCST AFTER THE FRONT FINALLY SINKS THRU THE
AREA....AS REGIONAL WX IS DOMINATED BY N/NWLY FLOW WITH A TROUGH
AXIS PARKED ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. WILL GO WITH THE GFSX MOS FOR
THE TIME BEING FOR HIGHS AND POPS...THOUGH WARMER TEMPS MAY BE
CALLED FOR IN FUTURE RUNS.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

BCC/DL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1115 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-271100-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1115 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE THREATS WILL OCCUR MOST LIKELY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN VALLEYS
AND AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

AN APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. SOME STORMS
COULD BE ENHANCED ALONG THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DJN/DL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
155 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

ALZ010-262000-
DE KALB-
155 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DEKALB COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 151 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SYLVANIA...OR 5 MILES NORTH OF FORT PAYNE...
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  SYLVANIA.
  FORT PAYNE.
  VALLEY HEAD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
337 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

ALZ009-TNZ097-262115-
FRANKLIN-JACKSON-
339 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE AND JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 333 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS DEVELOPING 6 MILES
EAST OF HUNTLAND...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF WINCHESTER. THIS STORM IS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME NORTHERN JACKSON AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PG