Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Huntsville, AL

000 
WWUS84 KHUN 231654
RFWHUN

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1154 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

ALZ001>010-016-240000-
/O.CON.KHUN.FW.W.0005.070523T1700Z-070524T0000Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-
1154 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE 
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. OUTDOOR BURNING 
IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED ACROSS THE AREA. ANY WILDFIRES THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD RAPIDLY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SLOWLY RECOVER.

$$

DJN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
305 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE US IS STILL
DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY
...CONTINUING TO KEEP US WARM AND DRY. WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSTREAM OF NORTHERN ALABAMA...IN RESPONSE TO A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SWINGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SMOKE
INTO THE AREA FROM FIRES ONGOING IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS IS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 5 MILES AT KMSL AND KHSV. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH WIND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OR BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.

HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE DAY ARE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXPECTED...AS THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SE INTO NORTHERN
GEORGIA...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS (BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT
AT 850 MB) ARE EXPECTED. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO PRODUCE WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE CONDITIONS MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
ALABAMA FROM NOON TO 7 PM. ANY OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED THIS AFTERNOON.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NAM PAINTS LIGHT
QPF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE
CWA...WHILE GFS PRODUCES NO PRECIPITATION AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY...THERE IS SOME
CONVECTION JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AHEAD OF THIS BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT. BELIEVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS BOTH NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA ALONG WITH THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING BACK-DOOR
FRONT...WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR ANY CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN ITSELF
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DO BELIEVE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE SLIGHT POP TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL BRIEFLY BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UNFORTUNATELY
DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THAT STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
REDEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BEHIND THIS BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGING
BECOMES FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA.  THIS RIDGING WILL
KEEP THE COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MAYBE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ON TAP TOWARDS THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE STRONG RIDGING FINALLY GIVES WAY AND THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. FOR NOW PUSHED BACK
SLIGHT POP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE FORECASTING A 20 POP FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    88  62  85  60 /  10   0  10   0
SHOALS        87  62  84  59 /  10   0  10   0
CULLMAN       85  59  83  57 /  10   0  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  86  59  83  58 /  10   0  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   87  61  84  59 /  10   0  10   0
FORT PAYNE    88  56  84  55 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...DE KALB...FRANKLIN
     AL...JACKSON...LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...
     MADISON...MARSHALL...AND MORGAN.

TN...NONE.
&&

20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
349 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-231900-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
349 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS AND AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE WILL COMBINE TO CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MORE SPECIFIC FIRE WEATHER
INFORMATION...CONSULT THE RED FLAG WARNING PRODUCT /HUNRFWHUN/.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

15