Wind Advisory 4, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
425 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH/OUTFLOW WILL MOVE OUT
OF OUR SE ZONES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. FURTHER WEST...SCATTERED
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ONGOING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL TX. THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF 120 KT UPPER JET. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN
INTENSITY AND IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED FOR SE
TX. WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS FOR CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. ACTUAL COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PARIS TO TEMPLE TO JUNCTION THIS HOUR. FRONT
SHOULD ENTER OUR NW ZONES BY 12Z AND PUSH OFF THE COAST BY LATE
MORNING. SKIES MAY TEMPORARILY CLEAR OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF SE TX THIS AFTN/EVENING. MODELS FORECAST STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO THIS EVENING. WILL SEE AN
ADDITIONAL DROP IN TEMPS WITH FROPA AND ONLY A SLIGHT RISE THIS
AFTN. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG MIXING. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED OVER
THE REST OF SE TX. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

SFC HIGH WILL LINGER OVER SE TX SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH NEXT UPPER LOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS 6-12 HRS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. PWS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. TRACK OF
UPPER LOW WOULD SUGGEST SQUALL LINE/POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR THE CWA. MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WHICH
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF SYSTEM. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING
TUESDAY...AND EXTEND POPS INTO TUE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER MODEL
RUNS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF TUESDAY SYSTEM IN THE HWO. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH
ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
OUTFLOW FLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED TO COAST WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST ZONES. SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES AFFECTING CLL.
ONCE THIS PASSES THROUGH MUCH OF REGION SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WANING DOWN. HOWEVER WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY BY
MID DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST PROBABLY 15 TO 25 MPH INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
IAH AND STRONGER COAST 20 TO 30 MPH AFFECTING GLS TAF SITE. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH WINDS TAPERING DOWN THIS COMING
EVENING. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS (PROBABLY MVFR) SHOULD LINGER DURING PART
OF THE MORNING BECOMING VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL USHER STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WITH WINDS REACHING
SCA THRESHOLD BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS MID TO LATE MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH 20-60 NM REGION RUNNING FROM 6 TO 8 FEET
AND PERIOD SHOULD BECOME SHORTER ONCE FRONT PASSES. WINDS EXPECTED TO
MODERATE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER REGION. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT USHERING INITIALLY A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  42  72  48  75 /  20   0   0   0   5
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  44  73  47  75 /  20   0   0   0   5
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  53  69  58  71 /  20   0   0   0   5

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
     GALVESTON... JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA
     BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION/MARINE...37

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
456 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-151200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
456 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND OFF THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST BY LATE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH INLAND...20 TO 30 MPH ALONG
THE COAST. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH THREE...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAY FOUR...TUESDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. LATER FORECASTS WILL BETTER DEFINE
THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS FIVE THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1151 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E MADISONVILLE        30.95N 95.84W
04/13/2007                   MADISON            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MADISON COUNTY SHERIFFS REPORTED TREE DOWN ON FM 2346
            EASTBOUND TOWARD MIDWAY

1130 PM     HAIL             BURTON                  30.18N 96.60W
04/13/2007  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

41