Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
938 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

.UPDATE...
STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE MCS MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE HILL
COUNTRY. AT 930 PM...THE MESOSCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED
ACROSS SE TX FROM ABOUT LIVINGSTON TO WILLIS TO SOMERVILLE AS
WAS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. DROPPED BRAZOS...MADISON...WALKER...
AND SAN JACINTO FROM THE WATCH AND ADDED JACKSON...MATAGORDA...
AND MATAGORDA BAY TO THE WATCH. WILL SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND MAY DELETE GRIMES...MONTGOMERY...AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES IF THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007/

DISCUSSION...
SPC HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #342 FOR MOST OF SE TX
UNTIL 07Z. WELL DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHED EAST-WEST ACROSS OUR
CWA. NUMEROUS TSRA FIRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TX...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA. THINK THE ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE
DEVELOPING MCS OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS COMPLEX COULD AFFECT
AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF SE TX FROM 05-10Z TONIGHT.  35/40

AVIATION...
VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS
A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF KATT TO
JUST NORTH OF KIAH TO NEAR KBPT. TSRA HAVE IGNITED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TX WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF KUTS. HAVE PLACED VCTS IN TAFS FOR KCXO/KIAH UNTIL
02-03Z FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS STORM AFFECTING THE TERMINALS OR
ADDITIONAL TSRA FIRING ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. NEXT
CONCERN IS THE MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY.
THIS MCS WILL TRACK SEWD AND COULD REACH KCLL BY 05Z. FURTHER
EAST...ONLY HAVE CBS IN THE HOUSTON TAFS OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE THIS MCS WILL SURVIVE AS FAR EAST AS KIAH/KHOU. A BREAK
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS. SCATTERED TSRA
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z AND HAVE PLACED
VCTS IN ALL THE TAFS.  35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  88  72  92  72 /  50  50  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  90  72  91  73 /  30  30  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  86  76  86  77 /  30  30  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
319 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-041200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
319 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SEA BREEZE FRONT
MAY LEAD TO THE GENERATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINING
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION THIS EVENING...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS MAY
ALSO BE SEVERE WITH WIND AND HAIL AGAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO AND THREE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY

THE STORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY
MORNING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT IN ITS WAKE MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.

ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST MONDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...THOUGH THINGS COULD
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES USUALLY SEEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE LATE SUMMER
MONTHS. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

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