Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2007

.UPDATE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD (FOR EARLY EVENING) POPS AS PER CONVECTIVE
TRENDS. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES EXPECTED
TO AFFECT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF CWFA. OTHERWISE
...REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE ON TRACK.
37

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2007/

DISCUSSION...
MCS IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ZONES OF CWFA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION BECOMING
SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES AHEAD OF MCS. HIGHER POPS WILL
CONTINUE OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS AND BROAD
AND SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. PROGGED VERTICAL PROFILES AND PWAT VALUES REMAINING
CONSISTENT BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. THUS WE SHALL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION EASTERN
SECTIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GFS
IS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLING OVER OUR REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS PERIOD. 37

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  90  71  89  70 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  89  71  88  71 /  60  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  85  75  85  75 /  40  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2007

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-311100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
346 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.