Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

000 
WGUS74 KHGX 021059
FFSHGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
559 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

TXC239-021230-
JACKSON TX-
559 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 AM CDT FOR 
NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY...

AT 559 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE NEARLY STATIONARY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY. LAW 
ENFORCEMENT HAS REPORTED NO REPORTS OF FLOODING. RADAR NOW ESTIMATES 
THAT 5 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 
THE COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED 
WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.  

FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED IN OR NEAR...
CORDELE...MORALES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY
SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2924 9668 2906 9692 2902 9682 2892 9677
      2909 9648

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
328 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL IN THIS
AREA AND ESPECIALLY JUST TO OUR WEST AROUND THE CRP-EWX CWA BORDER.
SOME TRAINING IS EVIDENT AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN THE MEANTIME...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE COAST
UNDER A VERY MOIST AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
2 UP NORTH TO AROUND 2.1 ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 2.4 IN THE VICTORIA
AREA). A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CENTRAL TEXAS AREA UPPER LOW AND
THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS POINT TOWARD ANOTHER WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS PATTERN ACTUALLY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. IN FACT...IF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION GETS IN THE RIGHT POSITION
TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SOME PORTIONS OF OUR CENTRAL OR WESTERN
COUNTIES ALONG WITH AREAS FURTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS
MIGHT BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SOME EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR TODAY AND WILL INTRODUCE
THIS IN TOMORROWS FORECAST TOO. HAVE ALSO RAISED POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...A FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DECENT CONSISTENCY
IN MOVING THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AND BUILDING SOME SURFACE RIDGING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE EAST.
PWS ARE FORECASTED TO FALL BELOW 2 ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 1.75 BY SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE GFSX MOS POPS AND TEMPS AFTER WEDNESDAY AND HAVE OUR FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE GRADUALLY DECREASING POPS AND GRADUALLY WARMING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.  42
&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 13000FT AT KHOU TO NEAR 25000FT AT
KIAH. VISIBILITIES WERE REDUCED TO NEAR 5SM WITH LIGHT FOG AT
KCXO. BROAD AREA OF WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE
IN COMBINATION WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AS WELL
EASTERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
QUESTION IS HOW MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT DIURNAL HEATING AND
WHETHER CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION PROVIDING
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...VARIABLE AND GUSTY
WINDS LIKELY WITH STORMS IN THE VICINITY. WITH ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY MENTION VCTS THAN VCSH EARLY AS WELL AS MOVE TEMPO
GROUPS EARLIER AS WELL. 32
&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AT
BUOY035 AND NEAR 4 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 17 KNOTS AT
BUOY019 EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
STATE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. 32
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  74  85  74  87 /  70  40  70  40  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  74  85  74  87 /  70  40  70  40  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  79  85  79  87 /  70  40  70  40  60
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
311 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-
031200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
311 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 3 TO 5
INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OR WHERE
TRAINING DEVELOPS. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO AND THREE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND
2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS OR WHERE TRAINING DEVELOPS. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE AREA BEGINS TO
SLOWLY DRY OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.