Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

000 
WGUS74 KHGX 281225
FFSHGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
725 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

TXC239-281235-
JACKSON TX-
725 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 730 AM CDT FOR NORTHERN 
JACKSON COUNTY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED NORTH OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. 
THE JACKSON COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS NO FLOODING IN THE AREA.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR THE WARNED AREA.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY
SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2906 9691 2901 9683 2891 9677 2908 9649
      2925 9666

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
536 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER SATELLITE LOOPS
AND 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR TODAY
TO GO WITH LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL INLAND AREAS...SLIGHTLY COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER QPF VALUES. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE FLOOD WATCH...STILL IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM FOR LOCATIONS ROUGHLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO SEALY TO MATAGORDA. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. THE SLIGHT
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY SHOULD
PLACE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AT A BETTER RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY. REMNANTS OF AN MCS OFF THE CENTRAL AND LOWER TEXAS COAST
ARE PROBABLY HAVING AN INFLUENCE ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SO FAR...AND ITS HARD TO TELL WHAT AFFECT (IF ANY) THIS WILL HAVE
ON DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
BEGINNING TO SET UP JUST OUTSIDE OUR CWA. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA HAVE
RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND IS WHERE OUR
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. WILL KEEP THIS WATCH GOING
TODAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO SEALY
TO MATAGORDA. IF THE NEXT MCS DOES NOT DEVELOP NEAR US AND THE EXPECTED
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DOES NOT MATERIALIZE TODAY...THE DAY CREW WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WATCH. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
AS THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA SHOULD GET A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TEMPERATURES...ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. 42

AVIATION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND JUST WEST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 13000FT AT KIAH AND KHOU. LIKELY TO
SEE VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS MORNING BEFORE 15Z EXCEPT ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP. WITH 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL TX...LAPSE
RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY BEFORE 15Z AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AFTER
15Z. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES TODAY...HEAVY
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SH/TS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z
THROUGH 00Z WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AS HEAVY RAIN REDUCES
VISIBILITIES IN THE VICINITY. 32

MARINE...
SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT
BUOY035 AND NEAR 6 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 17 KNOTS AT
BUOY019. WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
MORNING BUT SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWEST TX WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST SHIFTS EASTWARD. 32
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  68  83  68  85 /  70  30  50  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  69  82  69  85 /  70  30  60  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  74  82  74  82 /  70  30  50  30  50
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...
     JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...WASHINGTON...
     WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
332 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-290845-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
332 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE AREA WEST
OF A LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO SEALY TO MATAGORDA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.

.DAYS TWO AND THREE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...WITH
TRAINING LIKELY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.