Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

000 
WGUS74 KHGX 261838
FFSHGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
138 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

TXC089-261848-
COLORADO TX-
138 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR COLORADO COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF COLORADO COUNTY AND THE THREAT FOR 
FLOODING HAS ENDED.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY
SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2965 9687 2933 9659 2924 9662 2929 9657
      2941 9636 2954 9630 2993 9662

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
733 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO BOOST POPS UP BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. A SOLID SLOW EASTWARD MOVING NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
VICTORIA RECORDED 2.01 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN 6 AM AND 7 AM...AND ANOTHER
1.37 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES OR SO. DO NOT THINK WE
NEED A FLOOD WATCH YET FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SINCE NOT A LOT OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN OVER THERE IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE SITUATION
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE JUST ISSUED ZONE UPDATE INCLUDED
RAISING POPS AREAWIDE TODAY...MENTIONING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND RAISING TODAYS QPF AMOUNTS. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007/

DISCUSSION...
GULF MOISTURE PLUME CONTAINING HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
CORRESPONDING SHOWERS CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST
IN THE VICINITY OF MATAGORDA BAY AND EXTENDS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
AND NORTH ALL THE WAY UP PAST THE RED RIVER. VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY
SO FAR CAN BE FOUND FURTHER UP THE COAST IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND
OFFSHORE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FEATURES
DOWN TO THE MESOSCALE LEVEL WILL PROBABLY DICTATE WHERE THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOUND BOTH DAYS...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST CARRY POPS AROUND
50%. EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTION MIGHT RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS POSSIBILITY IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN AXIS OF THE WEAK TROUGH EDGES FURTHER EASTWARD.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH OFF TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY TO BRING
US LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. IF UPPER RIDGING CAN
BUILD INTO OUR AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WERE PROBABLY TALKING
ABOUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 42

AVIATION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
JUST WEST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL AS ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX. CEILINGS WERE
NEAR 10000FT AT KLBX TO NEAR 25000FT AT KIAH AND KHOU. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WITH SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER 18Z WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AS 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
WEST TX PROVIDES ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX
THIS AFTERNOON. QUESTION IS WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND IF ANY
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST LATER TODAY FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS ON. 32

MARINE...
SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 17 KNOTS
AT BUOY035 AND NEAR 7 FEET WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 17
KNOTS. WILL MAINTAIN SCEC FOR THE BAY WATERS THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE SCEC FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND THE SCA FOR THE FAR
OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS IN COMBINATION WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY STRONG ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS BRIEFLY BACK TO THE EAST MONDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT AN
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COASTLINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING A WEAK GRADIENT
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  67  82  67  82 /  70  30  50  30  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  71  83  71  83 /  50  20  30  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  75  82  75  82 /  50  20  30  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
740 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-271245-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
740 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLOW EASTWARD MOVING STORM SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE
SLOWER MOVING AND STRONGER STORMS OR WHERE TRAINING DEVELOPS MAY TOTAL
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REACHED.

.DAYS TWO AND FOUR...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY

A SLOW EASTWARD MOVING STORM SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS FIVE THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.