Wind Advisory 32, NWS Honolulu, HI

000 
WWHW70 PHFO 031344
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
344 AM HST TUE JUL 3 2007


HIZ022-031445-
/O.CAN.PHFO.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-070703T1800Z/
HALEAKALA SUMMIT-
344 AM HST TUE JUL 3 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS ON HALEAKALA SUMMIT HAVE DROPPED BELOW 30 MPH OVERNIGHT.

$$
POWELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
323 PM HST MON JUL 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WILL KEEP MODERATE TRADES BLOWING THIS WEEK. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...MAINLY AT NIGHT AND IN
THE MORNING. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING MORE TRADE SHOWERS
TO WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CHAIN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEEWARD AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHELTERED FROM
MOST OF THE RAIN...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL SPILL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 00Z SOUNDINGS DO NOT REVEAL MUCH CHANGE. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS JUST SLIGHTLY ON THE WETTER SIDE OF LONG-TERM NORMS
WITH MODERATE TRADES. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE
HIGHER NEAR LIHUE THAN AT HILO. MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF A
RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SATELLITE SOUNDER DATA SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ OF UP TO ABOUT 1.7 INCHES...EAST OF THE
ISLANDS APPROACHING 146W. THIS AREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT
ABOUT 17 KT. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS AREA...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH
THE WRF-NMM...WOULD BRING INCREASED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD SECTIONS OF
THE BIG ISLAND AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT. WRF LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE PW
WHEN IT GETS TO THE ISLANDS AND GFS IS PROBABLY TOO CONSERVATIVE.
THUS PREFERRED AT THIS POINT TO USE A BLEND OF WRF-NMM AND GFS TO
NUDGE THE WINDWARD/MAUKA POPS UPWARD FROM EAST TO WEST STARTING TUE
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED NIGHT /JULY 4/. SOME LOCALIZED
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS LEEWARD OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER MAUKA AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPING
NEAR THE ISLANDS STARTING ABOUT WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGHING PROBABLY WILL NOT HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON
THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS A BIT LATER IN THE WEEK AS PW REMAINS A LITTLE ON THE HIGH
SIDE. AGAIN...NOT TALKING ABOUT A DRENCHING HERE BUT AT LEAST A
LITTLE MORE OOMPH TO THE INCOMING TRADE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MODERATE TRADES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FRI
AND SAT...BUT THE NOGAPS AND UKMET KEEP THE RIDGE WEAKER. WE ARE
CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE STRONGER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WHICH
IMPLIES THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NORMALLY
WINDY SPOTS BY FRI OR SAT.

WE HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
THROUGH THU AS A REINFORCING S SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT.
DATA FROM WAVEWATCH III INDICATES HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED ON TUE...WITH A VERY GRADUAL DECREASE WED AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WILL SEE SOME
MUCH NEEDED RELIEF IN THE FORM OF TRADE SHOWERS THIS WEEK...LONG
TERM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THE COMBINATION
OF LONG TERM DROUGHT AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR
CONTINUED HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER...PARTICULARLY ON LEE FACING SLOPES.
THE SITUATION COULD BE EXACERBATED BY JULY 4TH FIREWORKS...AND WE
WILL BE ISSUING A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT TO URGE PEOPLE TO USE
EXTREME CAUTION THIS HOLIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

&&

R BALLARD