Wind Advisory 25, NWS Honolulu, HI

000 
WWHW70 PHFO 060123
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
323 PM HST TUE JUN 5 2007

...WIND ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT...

HIZ022-060230-
/O.CAN.PHFO.WI.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-070606T1600Z/
HALEAKALA SUMMIT-
323 PM HST TUE JUN 5 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS OVER THE SUMMIT AND UPPER SLOPES OF HALEAKALA ARE BELOW
ADVISORY SPEEDS.

$$

BIRCHARD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON JUN 4 2007

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING KAUAI...OAHU AND MOLOKAI
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR LINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME
SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE OVER WINDWARD MAUI...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR
LINE SHOULD DIMINISH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING WINDWARD SHOWERS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES FROM KAUAI AND NIIHAU TO
MOLOKAI. SEE NO REASON TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THIS PATTERN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE A
FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS JUST UPSTREAM OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. AN
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR SOME WINDWARD BIG ISLAND ZONES...WHICH
INDICATE ALMOST NO RAINFALL TONIGHT...IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS VERY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE HAS SHIFTED TO A POSITION NORTH NORTHEAST OF
THE ISLANDS...SO ITS INFLUENCE ON ISLAND WEATHER...THAT IS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...MAY BE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. THERE
IS ALSO A WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS IS LIKELY ONE OF THE FEATURES THAT
MAY MOVE TOWARD THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT COULD
ESTABLISH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ABOVE THE STATE.

FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND SPEEDS ON MOUNT HALEAKALA
TONIGHT IN CASE A WIND ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE SUMMIT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 400 PM HST...SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR LINE CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER KAUAI...OAHU AND
PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE PARCHED BIG ISLAND
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MOISTURE AXIS. THE SHEAR LINE HAS BEEN PUSHED
SOUTHWARD BY A HIGH NOW PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.

ONE OF THE FORECAST PROBLEMS OF THE DAY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE SHEAR
LINE MOISTURE WILL PROGRESS. THE HIGH/S CURRENT POSITION AND
MOVEMENT MEAN...EMPIRICALLY SPEAKING...THAT THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHEAR LINE WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTH...AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR LINE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN
THIS BELIEF...AND DEPICTS SOME OF THE TRADE SHOWERS REACHING
WINDWARD MAUI TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE MOVING OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH TUESDAY...CLEARING KAUAI
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THIS MOISTURE EXTENDS UP TO 550 MILES EAST OF KAUAI AND OAHU..AND IS
HEADING DUE WEST. AFTER THIS BATCH OF MOISTURE CLEARS THE
ISLANDS...GFS BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
ISLANDS FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH NOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MOVE
STEADILY EASTWARD TO A POSITION FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS LATE THIS WEEKEND...BUT DEEP LAYER TROUGHING FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SOUTHWARD
DISPLACED RIDGE...WITH A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
NEAR THE ISLANDS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP FRESH ESE TRADES OVER
WINDWARD WATERS...BUT LIGHTER ESE WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
WATERS AS THE BIG ISLAND DISRUPTS THE FLOW FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TO ITS LEE.

RIDGING ALOFT CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS LATER IN THE WEEK. A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH ITS
TYPICAL EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION BETWEEN HAWAII
AND THE U.S. WEST COAST BY MID WEEK. A TUTT LOW...OR A COLD-CORE LOW
ALOFT...IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BIG ISLAND ON THURSDAY...AND
THEN LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL REFLECTION
IS APPARENT IN ALL GLOBAL MODELS...WITH GRADUAL MID-LEVEL COOLING
INDICATED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...THE RECENT
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE WITH US. THEREFORE...WINDWARD AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE A MORE NORMAL RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...AND THE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING KONA SLOPE SHOWERS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY
VIGOROUS. OVERALL THOUGH...LEEWARD AREAS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET
MUCH RAINFALL IN THIS REGIME...AND A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED
EARLIER TODAY UNDER THE HEADER ESFHFO...HIGHLIGHTING THE HYDROLOGIC
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE.

THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
HALEAKALA SUMMIT...BUT NOT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WHETHER OR NOT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE EXCEEDED REMAINS
TO BE SEEN...BUT OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS WINDS NEAR ADVISORY
SPEEDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION...HOUSTON
PREV DISCUSSION...BIRCHARD