Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Honolulu, HI

000
WGHW70 PHFO 272341
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
141 PM HST TUE FEB 27 2007

HIC001-272351-
HAWAII IN HAWAII COUNTY-
141 PM HST TUE FEB 27 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII IN
HAWAII COUNTY...

THE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING HAVE SUBSIDED...BUT RUNOFF IS STILL
OCCURRING AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

LAT...LON 1953 15525 1955 15488 1980 15499 2005 15526

$$
KODAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE FEB 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THANKS TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE. AN UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY NEAR THE STATE WILL CAUSE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A MORE
TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWER DISTRIBUTION EXPECTED FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES
ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE. THIS IS PROVIDING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
WITH THE RESULT BEING LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH THEN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN END
OF THE STATE. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAINLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAVE BEEN OVER WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE 1.90 INCHES HAVING FALLEN AT THE
WAIAKEA UKA RAIN GAUGE...WITH 1.82 INCHES HAVING FALLEN AT THE HILO
AIRPORT. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO FALLING OVER EASTERN MAUI. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ITS PRESENT LOCATION IS JUST SOUTH OF
KAUAI AND OAHU. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A TRIGGER FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
STATE SO RAINFALL SHOULD TAKE ON THE FORM OF A TYPICAL TRADE WIND
DISTRIBUTION. IF ANY LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY...THEY WOULD LIKELY BE OVER OR NEAR THE BIG ISLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED UP NEAR 30N.
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS IN THE USUAL BREEZY PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
BY FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY EAST OF THE
STATE WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL
OUTPUT. SO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS NUMEROUS AND LIGHT AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. IN THE MEAN TIME...A
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL NUDGE THE SURFACE RIDGE
GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD WITH TRADE WINDS DROPPING DOWN A NOTCH. BY
SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STATE TO ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE WESTERN END OF
THE STATE. MANY LOCATIONS BY THEN WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE LOCAL LAND
AND SEA BREEZES. SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WOULD THEN TAKE ON A
MORE AFTERNOON INTERIOR CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT
NOT ALLOWING FOR TO MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVE WATCH MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS INTERPRETATION OF THE PAST AND
PRESENT ISOBARIC SURFACE CHARTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SURF WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEK. A
SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND 6 FEET IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE USUAL WINDY PLACES LIKE IN THE
CHANNELS...NEAR HEADLANDS...AND WATERS AROUND SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

BURKE