Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST FRI DEC 7 2007

.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT ARE OCCASIONALLY HEAVY... ALONG
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE LOW
JUST NORTH OF KAUAI WILL START MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING AFTER WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE STABLE.
THERE WILL NONETHELESS BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SATURDAY.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BUT THEY WILL WEAKEN
THIS WEEKEND. TRADE WINDS SHOULD RETURN BY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE STRONG WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION IS AT ITS CLOSEST POSITION... NEARLY 150 MILES NORTH
OF KAUAI. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING IT TO THE NORTH LATER
TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION DUE TO THE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR. THE SURFACE
TROUGH... STILL NEAR KAUAI... SEEMS TO MARK THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HENCE THE GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT LIKELY
EAST OF KAUAI WITH BANDS OF CONVECTION APT TO CONTINUE FORMING AND
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND
REMAINING FROM THE OLD FRONT IS JUST GRAZING THE EASTERN PART OF THE
BIG ISLAND IT COULD SHIFT OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND THREATEN THEM
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS OVER ALL ISLANDS BUT
KAUAI MAY BE EXCLUDED LATER TODAY.

SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED AS STRONGLY AS
ANTICIPATED... ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE WINDS MAY STILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SO HAVE LEFT WIND ADVISORIES UP FOR THE
AREAS MOST STRONGLY AFFECTED... TYPICALLY DOWNSLOPE WHICH IN THIS
CASE IS ROUGHLY THE NORTH THROUGH EAST SIDES OF THE ISLANDS FROM
OAHU TO MAUI. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN LOWER ATMOSPHERE STILL
APPARENT ON BALLOON SOUNDS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS BUT WITH WITH DECREASING TREND
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING IN COMBINATION WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND
NECESSITATES CONTINUATION OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON SUMMITS OF BIG
ISLAND. STRONG WINDS LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ON SUMMITS OF
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WITH POSSIBILITY OF EXTENSION OF THOSE
WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY OF OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI AND MAUI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL ISLANDS TIL 6 PM FRIDAY.

HIGH WIND WARNING SUMMITS OF HALEAKALA AND BIG ISLAND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

BLIZZARD WARNING BIG ISLAND SUMMITS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY KAUAI KAIWI PAILOLO CHANNELS... OAHU AND MAUI
WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

HOAG