Wind Advisory 3, NWS Gray, ME

000 
WWUS71 KGYX 240258
NPWGYX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
958 PM EST SUN DEC 23 2007

...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT... WINDS COULD GUST TO 45 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE WINDS SHOULD START DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.


MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-240900-
/O.CON.KGYX.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-071224T0900Z/
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-
SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-
MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDOVER...BYRON...MIDDLE DAM...
ROXBURY...SOUTH ARM...UPTON...WILSONS MILLS...AVON...
CARRABASSETT VALLEY...COBURN GORE...DALLAS...DAVIS...EUSTIS...
KINGFIELD...BINGHAM...RUMFORD...NORWAY...SOUTH PARIS...MEXICO...
FRYEBURG...OXFORD...FARMINGTON...WILTON...SKOWHEGAN...
PITTSFIELD...MADISON...FAIRFIELD...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...
BRIDGTON...LEWISTON...AUBURN...AUGUSTA...WATERVILLE...WINSLOW...
GARDINER...UNITY...BIDDEFORD...SACO...OLD ORCHARD BEACH...
PORTLAND...SOUTH PORTLAND...WESTBROOK...BATH...TOPSHAM...
WALDOBORO...BOOTHBAY HARBOR...WISCASSET...ROCKLAND...CAMDEN...
THOMASTON...BELFAST...LITTLETON...NORTH CONWAY...CONWAY...
LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH...WOLFEBORO...CLAREMONT...NEWPORT...
CONCORD...LACONIA...TILTON-NORTHFIELD...MEREDITH...ROCHESTER...
DOVER...DURHAM...DERRY...LONDONDERRY...EXETER...PORTSMOUTH...
HAMPTON
958 PM EST SUN DEC 23 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

LOOK FOR WINDS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS THIS STRONG COULD RESULT IN POWER TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES... WHICH IN TURN MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN ALSO MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAY FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
258 PM EST SUN DEC 23 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING
WINTRY WEATHER TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT PRESENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
QPF TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH WITH
MUCH OF THIS FALLING IN UNDER 6 HOURS. THE SNOWPACK SHOULD READILY
ABSORB THE RAINFALL AND THE ONLY PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED ARE PONDING
OF WATER WHERE DRAINS AND CULVERTS ARE PLUGGED BY SNOW AND ICE.
OF GREATER CONCERN...THE LATEST KGYX WIND VAD PROFILE SHOWS 40 TO 50 KNOTS
JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. WE SHOULD MIX SOME OF THIS HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR DOWN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION BANDS. WEVE OPTED FOR A WIND ADVISORY BETWEEN 02Z
AND 09Z FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION CUTS OFF ABRUPTLY
IN MOST SECTIONS SHORTLY AFTER THE FROPA WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ON MONDAY...BREEZY WITH A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AS WINDS WONT BE FROM A FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RELAX MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY IN THE MARITIMES AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW
TRIES TO BECOME ZONAL. UPSLOPE SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE WILL BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR...AND NOT SURE THIS WILL BE MORE THAN A LOW
END TYPE EVENT AT BEST.

ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DOMINATE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
WITH SOME GRADIENT STILL PLACE...A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS WERE USED
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY WERE BASED MORE ON THE HIGHER
GFS MOS NUMBERS BASED ON SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE LOWER
TO MID LEVELS.

AFTER THIS...THE FLOW BECOMES BROADLY SOUTHWEST IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE 12Z GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TAKING THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
FURTHER OFFSHORE AS THE FLOW DOES NOT BACK ENOUGH FOR MUCH OF AN
EFFECT NEAR THE COAST. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN FLOW THURSDAY.

AFTER THIS...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF. THIS BRINGS A STRONGER
SYSTEM WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SINCE THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OUT
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DROPPED INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THIS TRACK
MAKES MORE SENSE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN AND SNOW (AND
POSSIBLY ICE) WITH THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...MAINLY MVFR IN RAIN AND CEILINGS
TONIGHT WITH LLWS. SURFACE WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 04 AND 08Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPE EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLEB...WOULD COULD SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE STEADILY
TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE LIKELY AROUND THE TIME OF
THE STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE.

IN THE LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE GALE RANGE MONDAY
NIGHT...AS THE GRADIENT AND DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER BOTH SUPPORT
THIS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DROP OFF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE REMAINING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO PRECLUDE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS. IN FACT...AT THIS
POINT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE TO MONITORED...SHOULD THE LOW PASS CLOSER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS AND HPC QPF FORECASTS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING BETWEEN
THREE-QUARTERS AND ONE AND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THE
EVENT. MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL IN A THREE HOUR PERIOD CLOSE TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COULD RESULT IN NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING WITH
STORM DRAINS CLOGGED WITH SNOW.

HOWEVER...THE LARGE HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINOR.
BASED ON THE QPF MENTIONED ABOVE...MOST RIVERS SHOULD SEE AND 1 TO
3 FEET RISE. SINCE MOST RIVERS ARE LOW OR ICE COVERED...THIS
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
914 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007

MEZ007>009-012>014-NHZ001>009-241415-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
914 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...RAIN AND WIND LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY MID DAY. EXPECT DEEP
SNOWPACK TO ABSORB MOST OF RAINFALL THUS NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME URBAN TYPE NUISANCE FLOODING
ESPECIALLY WHERE CATCH BASINS/DRAINS ARE BLOCKED BY RECENT
SNOWFALL. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MEZ018>022-NHZ010-013-241415-
INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-
INTERIOR WALDO-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
914 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...RAIN AND WIND LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY MID DAY. EXPECT DEEP
SNOWPACK TO ABSORB MOST OF RAINFALL THUS NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME URBAN TYPE NUISANCE FLOODING
ESPECIALLY WHERE CATCH BASINS/DRAINS ARE BLOCKED BY RECENT
SNOWFALL. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   HIGH WIND WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MEZ023>028-NHZ014-241415-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
914 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...RAIN AND WIND LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A BRIEF MIX OF SLEET AND RAIN BEFORE
QUICKLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. EXPECT DEEP SNOWPACK TO ABSORB MOST
OF RAINFALL THUS NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...THOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME URBAN TYPE NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY WHERE
CATCH BASINS/DRAINS ARE BLOCKED BY RECENT SNOWFALL.
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ150>154-241415-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
914 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

WINDS WILL RELAX LATER MONDAY.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.