Snow Advisory 7, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
245 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NH/VT TRANSFERRING ITS ENERGY OFFHSORE
AT THIS TIME. LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTESIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES LATER FRIDAY. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT BEHIND THE
LOW RELAXES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN
APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
LATER MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT/...
PER PRESSURE FALL ANALYSIS...LOW PRESSURE RE-FORMING OFFSHORE AT
THIS TIME IS FURTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALREADY EVIDENT IN SOUTHERN NH. COLD AIR POURING IN WITH
PRECIPITATION HAVING ALREADY CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AT KMPV. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN/
MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN/ MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.  LOOKS AT LEAST TO BE
A FEW INCHES ON GROUND BY SUNRISE THOSE AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONSO OF 3 TO 5 INCHES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO
LOOKING AT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WARNING
AREA.  FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER NH ZONES 3/4...LOOKING
AT AN INCH OR SO BY SUNRISE WITH ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES DURING
THE DAY OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.  SOUTH OF THAT...THERELL BE SOME
MIXING OR CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THE ACCUMULATION.
PLAN ON KEEPING IT A LIQUID EVENT OVER SOUTHERNMOST AND COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WRAP AROUND SNOWS TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING. HAYES TYPE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW TO
DEVELOP ABOVE 1500 FEET IN THE NORTHWEST FACING TERRAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL ADD TO OUR SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL TOTALS PLACING MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS CLOSE TO THE 8 RANGE.

WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY CONTINUE FOR A PERIOD WITH FLOW
OREINTED OUT OF THE WEST IN A DEEP LAYER. MIXING LEVELS TO BE IN
THE 3-5 KFT RANGE AS WELL.

SURFACE LOW DEVLOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE LOOK
LIKE A MISS AT THIS TIME. STRONG LABRADOR LOW TO ACT AS A BLOCK
DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME.

CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
LOW ATTEMPTS TO HEAD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. WARM FRONT WELL
AHEAD OF SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH SO MUCH ACTIVITY ONGOING IN THE SHORT
RANGE...HAVE FOCUSED ATTENTION ON UPCOMING HAZARDS AND PLACED A
SIMPLIFIED PERIOD SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT (WHICH MAY WELL END
UP BEING A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE)...AND A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING TO MVFR FRIDAY
MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES FRIDAY NIGHT
ONWARDS. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR MIX POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH SAT. GALE CENTER FORMS AND PASSES WELL S OF OUR
WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN IN WESTERN MAINE WITH GENERAL 1.5 TO
2.O INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STILL SOME RAINFALL...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE
HEAVIEST HAS FALLEN...SO WILL HOLD ONTO FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. WILL
NEED TO KEEP EYE ON SWIFT RIVER IN MAINE...AS WELL AS OTHER SMALL
RIVERS AND STREAMS. BASED ON COLD AIR COMING IN FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED
...EXPECT THAT WATCH WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
     SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ012>014.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NHZ001>006.
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
     SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NHZ003-004.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
209 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007

MEZ014-021-022-026>028-152000-
COASTAL WALDO-INTERIOR WALDO-KENNEBEC-KNOX-LINCOLN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-
209 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KENNEBEC COUNTY...SOMERSET
COUNTY...WALDO COUNTY...KNOX COUNTY AND LINCOLN COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM
EST...

AT 209 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HOPE...OR ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF CAMDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WASHINGTON...WARREN...
UNION...SEARSMONT...ROCKPORT...ROCKLAND...LINCOLNVILLE...
LIBERTY...HOPE AND CAMDEN THROUGH 300 PM EST.

GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
220 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007

MEZ014-021-152015-
KENNEBEC-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-
220 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KENNEBEC COUNTY AND SOMERSET
COUNTY THROUGH 315 PM EST...

AT 220 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER MANCHESTER...OR ABOUT 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF AUGUSTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT READFIELD...MANCHESTER...HALLOWELL...
AUGUSTA...VASSALBORO...SIDNEY...BELGRADE...OAKLAND...WINSLOW AND
WATERVILLE THROUGH 315 PM EST.

GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE IN ITS PATH.

HAYES