Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
405 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
992 MB LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR QUEBEC CITY AT 19Z WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN NEW YORK. RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND IN VCNTY OF THE
BOUNDARY. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF AFTERNOON BREAKS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWED
READINGS TO SURGE INTO THE 60S...AND IN A FEW LOCATIONS TO
70...WHICH IS A GOOD 30 TO 35 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE.
HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO MID MAY AVERAGES THEN EARLY JANUARY.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ECLIPSED AT BOTH
CONCORD AND PORTLAND WITH A RECORD EVENT REPORT...SXUS71...TO BE
SENT JUST AS SOON AS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFFSHORE THIS EVENING TAKING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH IT. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS COOLER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA. ON SUNDAY...A FINE DAY IS IN SHORE WITH SUNSHINE
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL A GOOD TWENTY DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
NEAR 50 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME IS THE MOST INTERESTING
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS ARE STILL NOT AS CLOSE AS
THEY COULD BE WITH THE DETAILS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONLY
THE GFS SUGGESTS A SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT...WHILE OTHER MODELS
POINT TO BAGGINESS IN THE GRADIENT BUT NO SECONDARY.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND GO WITH A WARMER
SOLUTION. THE COLUMN SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL AREAS TO START
AS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP
MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SOUTHWEST ZONES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FURTHER NORTH...A HINT AT LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MAY HELP FORM A BAND OF SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD PUSH THE PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION ZONE IN THE THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH THE BEST LIFT IS TRANSITORY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE GFS MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND ICE SHOULD BE AN ADVISORY
LEVEL EVENT...SO NO WINTER WEATHER WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

THE WINDS COME AROUND AND THE GRADIENT INCREASES FOR TUESDAY.
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP CLEAR THINGS OUT.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN FLOW SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION AS THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN PROMINENT IN PAST MODEL RUNS.

AFTER THE INTRUSION OF COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE
COLDER AIR DROPS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE...AND MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE MIXED EVENT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF IFR THROUGH DUSK IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WELL N AND E OF
KNHZ...OTHERWISE VFR...WITH ISOLATED MVFR THROUGH DUSK IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY)...EXPECT WINDS TO REACH GALE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING AND WILL ISSUE A GALE WITH THE NEW
PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS DROP OFF OVERNIGHT BUT SMALL
CRAFT SEAS WILL LINGER FOR PART OF SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WINDS WILL START COMING UP IN THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH
MIXING FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GRADIENT. AFTER A LULL...AND EITHER A
SECONDARY OR INTENSIFYING PRIMARY LOW...THE GRADIENT SUPPORTS A
GALE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS WITH THIS AS WELL MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO SMALL CRAFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATER TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
245 AM EST SAT JAN 6 2007

ANZ150-170-MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-070745-
STONINGTON ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
WATERS FROM STONINGTON (DEER ISLE) ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA FROM
25 TO 40 NM-NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-
SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-
MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
245 AM EST SAT JAN 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR...WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHEASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO THE
MERRIMACK RIVER MA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY/TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MONDAY STORM APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY LIQUID OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS...THOUGH COULD BEGIN AS A MIX LATER SUN NIGHT BEFORE
CHANGING OVER. OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS...LOOKS LIKE A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS. NEXT EVENT FOR WED DOES NOT
LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATED... THOUGH
LOOKS TO BE COLDER AND WHAT PRECIPITATION DOES FALL SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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