Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
239 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
TODAY INTO FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...THEN CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A RETURN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH LATE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A TROPICAL LIGHT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A
STALLED WEAK FRONT GRADUALLY BECOMES WASHED OUT. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE WASHED OUT FRONT PRODUCING BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE NOT AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHWRS BUT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH ALLOWING HUMIDITIES TO REMAIN HIGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
POPS WILL BE HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
A CONTINUED TROPICAL REGIME IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ON THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS THE LONG WAVE
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VERY HIGH POPS MAKES SENSE WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUING. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO
DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW AND CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SATURATION
IN THE LOW LEVELS. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MILD AND IT WILL FEEL
MORE LIKE A SUMMER EVENING DUE TO THE HIGH HUMIDITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE STRATIFORM AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND TAPER OFF AS THE LOW HEADS TO
THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT ABOUT THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE HILLS AND CLOSER TO A QUARTER
NEAR THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AS COLD AIR STARTS ADVECTING ON BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

REMAINING FAIRLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S...BUT LOWS DIPPING TO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT.
THINGS START WARMING UP AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT
FOR A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN
NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP. IN THE MORNING
SOME AREAS OF FOG IN SOME LOW LYING AREAS WILL CREATE LIFR CONDS
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG WITH EVEN A FEW
TSTMS PSBL.

LONG TERM...CONTINUED MVFR TO IFR IN RAIN AND FOG FRIDAY BUT
IMPROVING TO VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY TROPICAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. TROPICAL SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL
REDUCE VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

ANZ150-MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-281015-
STONINGTON ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-NORTHERN OXFORD-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-
KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-
LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
612 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER MA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WEAK IMPULSES WILL
MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE AND BRING AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER LOW WILL BRING A MORE
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

NHZ007>009-271100-
BELKNAP-MERRIMACK-SULLIVAN-
622 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BELKNAP COUNTY...SULLIVAN COUNTY
AND MERRIMACK COUNTY THROUGH 700 AM EDT...

AT 622 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEWBURY...OR ABOUT
12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW LONDON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND NEWBURY...BRADFORD...
SUTTON...WARNER...ANDOVER...WEBSTER...SALISBURY...TILTON...
TILTON-NORTHFIELD AND SANBORNTON THROUGH 700 AM EDT.

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