Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
945 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 560 WILL END AT 10 PM THIS EVENING. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLD STRONG TO SVR TSTMS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SFC CDFNT. THE TSTMS SHOULD WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE TSTMS WILL WEAKEN AND DIE OUT OVERNIGHT...LEAVING JUST SCT
SHRA LATER TNGT. THE CDFNT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE ACROSS THE FA TNGT
AND OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. IT WILL TAKE A GOOD PART OF THE DAY
SATURDAY TO BRING IN LESS HUMID WX AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THUS
SFC TEMPS COULD HIT 90 DEGREES IN MANY SRN AREAS WHILE NRN AND MTS
ZONES WILL BE ABLE TO COOL OFF SOME. DRY WX IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER AS INDICATED BY MODEL RH FCST. THERE
WILL BE SOME F AROUND LATE TNGT DUE TO ANY RAINFALL SATURATING LO
LVLS AS WINDS DROP OFF.

GENERALLY USED THE GFS40 AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE WITH SOME SUPPORT
FROM THE NAM AND MET MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GIVE WAY TO AREAS OF F ESPECIALLY AT KLEB. A FEW SHRA WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT AS THE SCT STG TO PSBLY SVR TSTMS DIE OUT BY MIDNIGHT
OR SO. THE F SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY SATURDAY BY 12Z OR 13Z WITH VFR
CONDS TO FOLLOW.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU SATURDAY THOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH
25 KTS FOR AWHILE OVERNIGHT AS BUOYS ALREADY REPORTING THIS.  SVR
TSTM POTENTIAL ENDS AROUND 10 PM THOUGH A FEW STG TSTMS COULD CONT
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1007 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

ANZ150-MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-050215-
STONINGTON ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-NORTHERN OXFORD-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-
KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-
LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
1007 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER MA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRED AT 10 PM BUT SOME STRONG AND
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
944 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

MEZ008-013-040230-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
944 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH 1030 PM
EDT...

AT 944 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTH OF RANGELEY...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
RANGELEY...DALLAS...REDINGTON...MADRID...SALEM AND KINGFIELD THROUGH
1030 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED.

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
947 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

MEZ024>028-040230-
COASTAL CUMBERLAND-COASTAL WALDO-KNOX-LINCOLN-SAGADAHOC-
947 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WALDO COUNTY...KNOX COUNTY...
SAGADAHOC COUNTY...CUMBERLAND COUNTY AND LINCOLN COUNTY THROUGH 1030
PM EDT...

AT 947 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8
MILES WEST OF BLUE HILL TO ROCKLAND TO NEAR WISCASSET TO 9 MILES SOUTH
OF BATH...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND WESTPORT...WALDOBORO...UNION...
PHIPPSBURG...NORTHPORT...NOBLEBORO...NEW CASTLE...LINCOLNVILLE...HOPE
AND EDGECOMB THROUGH 1030 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED.

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1004 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

MEZ019-020-024>026-040245-
ANDROSCOGGIN-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-INTERIOR
CUMBERLAND-LINCOLN-SAGADAHOC-
1004 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY...SAGADAHOC
COUNTY...CUMBERLAND COUNTY AND LINCOLN COUNTY THROUGH 1045 PM EDT...

AT 1004 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES NORTH OF POWNAL...OR
ABOUT 11 MILES WEST OF TOPSHAM...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS CLUSTER
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND RAYMOND...
POWNAL...NORTH YARMOUTH...NORTH WINDHAM...NEW GLOUCESTER...GRAY...
FREEPORT...LISBON FALLS...TOPSHAM AND BRUNSWICK THROUGH 1045 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED.

DS