Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
248 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID AIR MASS...COURTESY OF A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY...AND COME TO A CRAWL
OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE CONTINUING TROPICAL
AIR MASS WILL SPAWN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CONTAIN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY
WORKWEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN TROPICAL DOWNPOURS
...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SEVERE THREAT WILL ABATE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PROMOTE QUITE A BIT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. INTENSITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY APPEAR TO BE BACKING
OFF A BIT. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISH A TAD SUNDAY
NIGHT DUE TO DIURNAL CYCLE...THEN PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE SAME REASON. TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. FORECAST THEN LOOKS
RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN HAZE/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
...MAY GO BRIEFLY IFR/LIFR IN CONVECTION. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR IN HAZE
EXCEPT FOR ANY IFR IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS SHORT TERM...THOUGH VISIBILITY IN FOG WILL FREQUENTLY BE
BELOW 1 MILE THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...LOOK FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
AFTER MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
UNTIL FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOUPY AIR MASS PROMOTING SOME REAL GULLY WASHERS. NEED TO KEEP ABREAST
OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WHERE REPEATED CONVECTION
TRAINS OVER SAME LOCALES.
&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1238 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

MEZ007-008-281730-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-NORTHERN OXFORD-
1238 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OXFORD COUNTY AND FRANKLIN COUNTY
THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

AT 1238 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OQUOSSOC TO
4 MILES NORTH OF SOUTH ARM...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
WEST OF RANGELEY TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RANGELEY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
SOUTH ARM...MIDDLE DAM...OQUOSSOC AND TIM POND THROUGH 130 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
130 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

MEZ018-023-NHZ010-014-281815-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL YORK-INTERIOR YORK-STRAFFORD-
130 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT STRAFFORD AND ROCKINGHAM
COUNTIES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND YORK COUNTY IN MAINE THROUGH 215 PM
EDT...

AT 130 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
SOMERSWORTH TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAMPTON TO 23 MILES SOUTH OF
HAMPTON FALLS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF DOVER
TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAMPTON TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEVERLY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND ROLLINSFORD...SOUTH BERWICK...NORTH
HAMPTON...NEWINGTON...MADBURY...HAMPTON FALLS...HAMPTON...
GREENLAND...DOVER AND SOUTH ELIOT THROUGH 215 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.