Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Guam

000
WWMY80 PGUM 300047
RFWMY 

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1047 AM LST FRI MAR 30 2007

GUZ001-310800-
/X.CON.PGUM.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070331T0800Z/
GUAM-
1047 AM LST FRI MAR 30 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM LST SATURDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM LST SATURDAY. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX CONTINUES TO RISE THROUGH THE
EXTREME FIRE DANGER CATEGORY...INDICATING PERSISTENT DRY
CONDITIONS FOR GUAM. WITH 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE READINGS BELOW
10...A HIGH IGNITION HAZARD EXISTS...ESPECIALLY WITH
SWORDGRASSES. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 16 AND
22 MPH ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 28 MPH...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

000
WWMY80 PGUM 310100
RFWMY 

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1100 AM LST SAT MAR 31 2007

GUZ001-010800-
/X.EXT.PGUM.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070401T0800Z/
GUAM-
1100 AM LST SAT MAR 31 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM LST SUNDAY...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM LST SUNDAY. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX CONTINUES TO RISE THROUGH THE
EXTREME FIRE DANGER CATEGORY...INDICATING PERSISTENT DRY
CONDITIONS FOR GUAM. WITH 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE READINGS BELOW
10...A HIGH IGNITION HAZARD EXISTS...ESPECIALLY WITH
SWORDGRASSES. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 16 AND 22 MPH ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 28 MPH...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
255 PM LST THU MAR 29 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE THE ONLY NEAR-TERM WEATHER FEATURE
AFFECTING THE MARIANAS. AVERAGE TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASED A FEW
KNOTS TODAY NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
GUAM. DOPPLER APPEARS A BIT MORE ACTIVE WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
00Z SOUNDING IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAYS VERSION WITH A SLIGHT
BACKING OF WINDS NOTED AT MID LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS INITIALIZED WELL WITH 92W CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION SOUTH OF
POHNPEI. HOWEVER...AT 60 HOURS GFS DEVELOPS A DOUBLE-BARREL LOW
BETWEEN CHUUK AND POHNPEI WHICH MAY BE THE CAUSE FOR ITS DIFFERENCES
WITH ECMWF AND NOGAPS. THEREFORE...PREFER THE LATTER TWO MODELS
INTERPRETATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...BUT
MODELS SUGGEST A FURTHER SLIGHT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A
RED FLAG WARNING IS A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
MOST MODELS SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 92W SOUTH OF POHNPEI WITH
VARYING DIVERGENT TRACKS...MOST NOTABLY GFS CONTINUES TO MOVE IT
EAST OF THE MARIANAS AND ECMWF AND NOGAPS MOVE IT SOUTH OF GUAM.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO
EITHER SCENARIO ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MASSAGE WIND GRIDS TO AVOID
INTRODUCING IT INTO THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR GUZ001.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.

&&

MARN