Wind Advisory 20, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Hart County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 160349
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1049 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY...

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-161100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.071216T1100Z-071217T0500Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...
SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...
ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
1049 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST SUNDAY NIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST SUNDAY NIGHT. 

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS
IN THE RANGE FROM 45 TO 50 MPH...PARTICULARLY AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS. ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...EXPOSED AREAS
NEAR LAKES AND OPEN FIELDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS
THIS STRONG.

THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KNOCK DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AND
BLOW AROUND SOME HOLIDAY DECORATIONS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. DELAY ANY PLANS FOR BOATING. USE EXTRA
CAUTION.

$$
MOORE/LANE

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 160756
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY...

.WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING THANKS TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE SLATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHERE GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. 

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-162100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.071216T1100Z-071217T0500Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
256 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50
MPH.

THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KNOCK DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AND
BLOW AROUND SOME HOLIDAY DECORATIONS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. DELAY ANY PLANS FOR BOATING. USE EXTRA
CAUTION.

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-162100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.071216T1100Z-071217T0500Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...RUTHERFORD...
COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...
ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
256 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXPOSED AREAS NEAR LAKES AND OPEN FIELDS.

THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KNOCK DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AND
BLOW AROUND SOME HOLIDAY DECORATIONS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. DELAY ANY PLANS FOR BOATING. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 170007
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
707 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

...VERY WINDY CONTINUING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-170115-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-071217T0500Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...RUTHERFORD...
COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...
ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
707 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. 

WINDS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA HAVE FALLEN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS
THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

$$

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-170815-
/O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-071217T1100Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
707 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY. 

SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50
MPH.

THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KNOCK DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AND
BLOW AROUND SOME HOLIDAY DECORATIONS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. DELAY ANY PLANS FOR BOATING. USE EXTRA
CAUTION.

$$

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 170249
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
949 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-171100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-071217T1100Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
949 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY. 

SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.

THE GUSTY WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
SOME HOLIDAY DECORATIONS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. DELAY ANY PLANS FOR BOATING. USE EXTRA
CAUTION.

$$

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 170745
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 AM EST MON DEC 17 2007

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-170845-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-071217T1100Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
245 AM EST MON DEC 17 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY SUBSIDED ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH AT TIMES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ARE
NO LONGER EXPECTED.

$$

GERAPETRITIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
314 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT IN TENNESSEE WILL
SWING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.  A RIDGE OF COLD AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY AND
PERSIST UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...A MILLER-B LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ONGOING
CAD WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
A STRONG WARM NOSE ABOVE THE DOME OF COLD AIR HAS TEMPERATURES FROM
5-10C (WHICH SHOULD KEEP ALL PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
STRONG WAA FORCING WITH DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS RESULTING IN
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER TO DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR CWFA. ALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STRONGEST
OMEGA WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. I HAVE NEAR 100 PCT POP
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA DURING THAT PERIOD. I ADJUSTED HPC QPF ACCUMS
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY GIVING QPF WITH RANGE FROM 0.5-1.0. WITH SOME
THUNDER IN NORTHERN GA AND MSAS/RUC LIS/SHOWALTERS INDICATING SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...I DECIDED TO ADD CHC THUNDER FOR THE SW
MTNS/GA MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND A COUPLE
RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED IN ANY EMBEDDED STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...A DRY SLOT IS STILL EXPECTED TO JUT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA...QUICKLY TAPERING OFF PRECIP. THE WEDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ERODE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. THE NAM IS LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. BUT THE AVERAGE TIMING
IS GENERALLY FROM 9Z ON THE WESTERN EDGE TO 12Z ALONG THE I-77
CORRIDOR. MODEL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SUPPORT SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING AROUND 12Z...WHILE POPS DROP BELOW SLIGHT CHC EAST
OF THE MTNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHERE SHARP DROPS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ANY DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE PROBABLY NOT GOING TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE FORECAST.
BIG CHANGES WILL BE HAPPENING RIGHT AROUND 12Z SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES PAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND THE DRY SLOT BLASTS IN FROM
THE SW...WHILE COLD AIR ALOFT COMES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT A QUICK
END TO THE PRECIP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE EAST OF THE MTNS AND THE GRIDS
WILL REFLECT THIS. MEANWHILE...THE MTNS SHOULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...WHEN IMPROVING NW FLOW UPSLOPE FORCES MORE
PRECIP MAINLY ON THE TN BORDER. A LIKELY POP WILL BE RETAINED THERE.
THE MOISTURE HOLDS ON INTO THE EVENING...SO THE CHANCE POP FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. SNOW
LEVELS DROP QUICKLY WHICH SHOULD CHANGE ALL PRECIP OVER TO A MIX
AROUND SUNRISE AND ALL SNOW BY NOON. THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
QUICKLY WHICH PULLS THE MOISTURE OUT FAST IN THE EVENING...THUS
LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF TIME FOR ACCUMULATION. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ABOUT
A SNOW ADVISORY WORKING OUT FOR THE NRN MTNS SO HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE IT NOW EVEN IF PRECIP CHANCE IN THE FORECAST IS NOT YET
CATEGORICAL THERE. THE WIND WILL BE A POTENTIALLY BIGGER PROBLEM
WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT AS THE LOW WRAPS UP
OFFSHORE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
RELATIVELY DEEP DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW VERY STRONG WIND
GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH TO MIX DOWN ANYWHERE FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING. RIDGETOPS COULD HAVE GUSTS ABOVE 60
MPH. FOR NOW...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AND ADVISE NEXT SHIFTS ABOUT POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WARNING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...RATHER THAN COMPLICATE MATTERS WITH A WATCH
JUST OVER THE MTNS.

ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST WHICH SUPPORTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSE
TO A GUIDANCE BLEND...WHICH KEEPS IT DRY AND COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS IN FLUX AS
MODELS SHIFT BETWEEN SLOWER...MORE AMPLIFIED STORM SYSTEMS AND
FASTER...LESS AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DRY
WX TUE AND WED...THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AND THU NITE...A DRY PERIOD FOR FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. THE
DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES ON TRACK AND ACTUAL TIMING OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS BEST PRECIP CHC LATE THU
AND THU NIGHT...THEN AGAIN SAT NITE. HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THIS
TIMING WITH POP FORECAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SHOW
THICKNESSES...SOUNDINGS AND H85 TEMPS CONSISTENT WITH A RAIN ONLY
FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE ABOVE THE WAY TOO
COOL GRIDDED GFS MOS VALUES FOR THE MTNS. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWED THE
GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TUE AND TUE
NIGHT...THEN RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT AND INCREASING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS HAVE ALL GONE DOWN TO IFR/LIFR (EXCEPT
KAND) AS OF 18Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CAUSE
VSBYS TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SIX
HOURS. RAIN AND DRIZZLE TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT BUT IFR CIGS PROBABLY
WILL REMAIN THROUGH UNTIL COLD FRONT PASSES (10-15Z SUNDAY). ONCE
FRONT PASSAGES...LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE AND WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST (NORTHERLY AT KAVL) AND BECOME GUSTY. UNTIL
THEN...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...DEVELOPING WESTERLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN
QUIET WX CONDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
     501>510.
     SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR NCZ033-048>050.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-161100-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
548 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE TODAY. SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN
COULD MIX IN AT TIMES NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF ICING WOULD BE CONFINED TO
ELEVATED SURFACES FROM EASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY TO EASTERN AVERY
COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY...SNOW
SHOWERS AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...AND AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH. A FEW HIGHER
ELEVATIONS COULD EVEN SEE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-161100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
548 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND OR LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AT SOME POINT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ501>510-161100-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
548 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TENNESSEE TODAY. SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN AT TIMES
LATE TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...ANY TRACE
AMOUNTS OF ICING WOULD AFFECT MAINLY ELEVATED SURFACES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...USHERING IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP...WITH WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS UP NEAR
THE BLUE RIDGE LATE SUNDAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED LATER
TODAY FOR ALL OR PART OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HG