Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Advisories in 2007
Wind Advisory 10, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this wind advisory at Feb 28, 2007, 2:32 PM EST for 17 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Mar 1, 2007, 6:00 AM EST. It was in force for 29 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 28, 2007, 2:32 PM EST (19:32 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 1, 2007, 6:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Mar 2, 2007, 11:02 AM EST
- In force
- 29 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Counties Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Yancey County, NC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 244 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1410 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 60 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 24 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 111 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS72 KGSP 281932 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 232 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-011015- /O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0010.070301T1100Z-070302T1100Z/ AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE... WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD... HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE 232 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACHING NEAR 50 MPH DURING THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BY LATE DAY. THESE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...OR WIND GUSTS OF 46 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. $$ HG
5 follow-up statements
000 WWUS72 KGSP 010920 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 420 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-012100- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0010.070301T1100Z-070302T1100Z/ AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE... WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD... HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE 420 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TODAY TO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TODAY. AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS... SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING NEAR 50 MPH DURING THE MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...OR WIND GUSTS OF 46 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. $$
000 WWUS72 KGSP 011613 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1113 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-020000- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-070302T1100Z/ AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE... WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD... HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE 1113 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WELL EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WINDY. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...OR WIND GUSTS OF 46 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. $$ HG
000 WWUS72 KGSP 012015 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 315 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082- SCZ001>014-019-021000- /O.NEW.KGSP.LW.Y.0019.070301T2015Z-070302T1100Z/ RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE- CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS- UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG- CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER- GREENWOOD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA... HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY... SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE... CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY... ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER... GREENWOOD 315 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007 ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING. $$ NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-021000- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-070302T1100Z/ AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE... WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD... HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE 315 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WINDY. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...OR WIND GUSTS OF 46 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. $$ HG
000 WWUS72 KGSP 020940 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 440 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007 ...GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING... STIFF WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING. NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-021700- /O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-070302T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KGSP.LW.Y.0020.070302T0940Z-070302T1700Z/ MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE... SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE 440 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING. $$ GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082- SCZ001>014-019-021045- /O.CAN.KGSP.LW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-070302T1100Z/ RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE- CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS- UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG- CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER- GREENWOOD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA... HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY... SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE... CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY... ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER... GREENWOOD 440 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007 ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. EXPECTED JUST LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE UPSTATE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. $$ NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-021700- /O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-070302T1700Z/ AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE 440 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...OR WIND GUSTS OF 46 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. $$
000 WWUS72 KGSP 021602 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1102 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007 NCZ033-049-050-022300- /O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-070302T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KGSP.LW.Y.0021.070302T1602Z-070302T2300Z/ AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE 1102 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM BURNSVILLE TO NEWLAND. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING. $$ NCZ501-503-505-021715- /O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-070302T1700Z/ CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- 1102 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. $$ NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-021715- /O.CAN.KGSP.LW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-070302T1700Z/ MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE... SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE 1102 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007 ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. BREEZY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. $$ GERAPETRITIS
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Feb 28, 10:10 AM EST, 4 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 10:10 AM EST, 4 hours 22 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1010 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING WESTERN SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN IN THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE DAY. WE EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO IMPACT ON INSOLATION. ALTHOUGH MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLIGHT LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FALLS SINCE YESTERDAY...OBSERVED TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING AT OR JUST ABOVE MOS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/SKY TRENDS NEEDED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...BUT OPERATIONAL MODELS AND 21Z SREF KEEP CWFA DRY. HAVE FOLLOWED THAT TREND. WINDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE RIDGES OF THE SMOKIES OR BALSAMS. EXPECT LOWS TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RECENT RUNS OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. BASED ON HPC MODEL DISCUSSION...I WILL FAVOR THE NAM SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. ISENTROPIC AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. LIFT AND MOISTURE IS DELAYED REACHING THE NC PIEDMONT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. BY 21Z...IT APPEARS THAT DEEP LIFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA...AUGMENTING ONGOING LIFT ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS. A SHARP INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 14-18Z...AS JET DIVERGENCE...ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOISTURE...AND CELL MOTIONS STEADILY INCREASE. BY 21Z...IT APPEARS THAT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION...SCT TSRA MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD. AFTER 0Z...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER AND GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD MOVE FURTHER NORTH INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 03-10Z. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWS WILL EXCEED AN INCH BY MID THURSDAY MORNING...PEAKING THURSDAY EVENING AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF. K-INDEX VALUES ALSO MOVE INTO THE MID 30S EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE WIDESPREAD AND DEEP LIFT...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY IT APPEARS THAT ALL AREAS OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAINFALL. TWO INCHES OR MORE SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY TO 6Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NUMEROUS SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING. SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK WITH A MODERATE OVER CENTRAL MS/AL/GA. MAINSTREAM SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS POINT TO A HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONVECTION OVER GA MAY BLOCK THE RICHEST LOW LEVEL CAPE FROM REACHING THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. NEVERTHELESS...THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME HELICITY AND LOW CAPES SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL SEVERE WIND EVENTS. BRIEF TORNADOES OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AREAS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS A BAND OF .9-1.5 EHI SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BEGIN AT 3Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL 9Z. AFTER 12Z...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY DRY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FRI...SLOW CAA AND CLEARING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 60S EAST AND MID 50S OVER THE MTNS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRI NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK VORT MAX AND CAA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WILL LIMITED MOISTURE TO YIELD A FEW SHSN OVER THE TN BORDER EARLY SAT MORNING. A STRONGER H5 TROF WILL ROTATE INTO THE NC MTNS SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPREAD AT LEAST SCT UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...FALLING MAINLY AS SN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER...A INCH OR MORE APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN MTNS BY SUN MORNING. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE MADE TO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AVIATION /09Z-06Z/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THICKEN THROUGH THE EVENING. AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS START OUT NORTH TO NORTHEAST THEN SHIFT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE LOW VFR CIGS FOR THE 12Z TAFS. PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. FIRE WEATHER... MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR TODAY EVEN WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT RH VALUES TO FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY/S COORDINATION WITH GA LAND MANAGERS INDICATED DRYING FUELS...BUT NOT TO CRITICAL LEVELS. SINCE FUELS WILL BE DRY BUT ABOVE RED FLAG VALUES...WILL ISSUE ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS. ALSO LIKE TUESDAY...NC AND SC WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW RED FLAG VALUES. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && SHORT TERM...HG
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 28, 5:52 AM EST, 8 hours 40 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 552 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007 GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509- SCZ001>003-011100- RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD- BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON- TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS- OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- 552 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID WEST WILL SPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SEVERE WIND EVENTS MAY OCCUR AS THE STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO EXCEED AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES WILL LIKELY SEE OVER TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY NIGHT. GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508- 510-SCZ004>014-019-011100- STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA- ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC- GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL- GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS- GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE- LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 552 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...SPSGSP. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID WEST WILL SPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SEVERE WIND EVENTS MAY OCCUR AS THE STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 85 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. IN ADDITION...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO EXCEED AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES WILL LIKELY SEE OVER TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRIDAY MORNING .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
Nearby
Wind Advisories in North Carolina, 2007Every wind advisory in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.