Tornado Warning 15, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 290102
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
802 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

SCC059-290145-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-071229T0145Z/
LAURENS SC-
802 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN LAURENS COUNTY...

AT 758 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CROSS HILL...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAURENS...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES SOUTH OF CLINTON BY 805 PM EST...
  JOANNA BY 810 PM EST...

LAT...LON 3428 8201 3431 8203 3441 8200 3452 8183
      3447 8168 3445 8168 3443 8172 3434 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 251DEG 37KT 3438 8190

$$
MCAVOY

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 290128
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
827 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

SCC059-290137-
/O.CAN.KGSP.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-071229T0145Z/
LAURENS SC-
827 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAURENS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3428 8201 3431 8203 3441 8200 3452 8183
      3447 8168 3445 8168 3443 8172 3434 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 251DEG 37KT 3446 8161

$$
MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
713 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY. A
DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
POPS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE PUSHED UP ACROSS THE ERN
PIEDMONT AS THE MAIN PRE FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND WORKS THROUGH.
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS NE
GA AND THE WRN UPSTATE...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE LIFTED.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED OR BETTER ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO THE EXISTING HIGH
CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE 850 MB
JET TRANSITS THE MOUNTAINS...AND THIS SHOULD EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT
MIDNIGHT. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES AT PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES SE OF AREA SAT MORNING
WITH SCT SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW BRIEFLY SAT AFTN-EVE BEFORE A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG BOUNDARY
TO THE S IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALOFT. GFS AND ECMWF
DEVELOP SFC LOW OVER N GULF WHICH PUTS AREA IN A VERY MOIST S
FLOW...WHILE NAM DEVELOPS LOW VCNTY CHS WITH BEST MOISTURE STAYING S
AND E OF AREA. USING A MODEL BLEND I LEANED TOWARD THE GFS WHICH WAS
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EC AND NAM. SINCE THICKNESS WILL NOT HAVE
LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY AND EXPECTING SOME SUNSHINE SAT...LOOKING FOR
ABOVE AVG TEMPS. WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN BECOMING LIKELY
SUN...HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE
TRANSITION TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS BY MIDWEEK OVER THE EASTERN U.S. GFS/ECWMF STILL IN DECENT
AGREEMENT CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC TRENDS. THE COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE VIA AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE.
LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHERE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
ON TUE AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY PLUNGE. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT A
SIGNIFICANT NW FLOW SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS
WITH THE MOST SIGNIFCANT SNOW OCCURRING TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ALSO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW WITH PERHAPS A GREAT LAKES CONNECTION FOR MOISTURE.
DPVA WITH TROUGH PASSAGE WILL ADD TO UPSLOPE MECHANICAL LIFT WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE BURSTS OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE TUE NGT/WED TIMEFRAME. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO CONTINUE
SHOW SOME CAPE AND H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -16C IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ALSO...THE SNOW GROWTH REGION SHOULD BE IN THE
FAVORED RANGE OF TEMPS FOR BEST DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH. HENCE...
THE STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WHICH COULD BE HEAVY IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY
WIND DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT AS ARCTIC SURFACE BUILDS
EAST.

ELSEWHERE AFTER MONDAY....THE STORY WILL JUST BE TEMPERATURES
COOLING TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU. OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR SOME
FLURRIES REACHING THE FOOTHILLS ON WED. GENERALLY FOLLOWED GMOS
TRENDS FOR THE GRID FIELDS....EXCEPT WENT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
FOR MAZ TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF A KAND TO
KCLT LINE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OCCASIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO RETREAT NORTH. CEILING/VSBY WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH
TEMPO IFR VALUES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PRIOR TO FROPA. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM 09Z WEST TO 14Z EAST WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
IN CEILINGS TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CEILINGS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY MON
MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY...AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KAVL TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR GAZ010.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG/SBK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
726 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-300030-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
726 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ010-NCZ062>065-300030-
RABUN-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
726 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE AREA THIS EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-300030-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-
726 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE AREA THIS EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PUSHING
MOISTURE UP THE WEST SLOPES. ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE NOT YET
CLEAR...IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING
MOST LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
157 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

NCZ051-058-281945-
GRAHAM-SWAIN-
157 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT GRAHAM AND SWAIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EST...

AT 150 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF ANDREWS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60
MPH. OTHER STORM STORMS WILL FOLLOW THIS ONE AND MOVE ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRODUCING LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH.

PEOPLE IN GRAHAM AND SWAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...

ROBBINSVILLE...STECOAH...BRYSON CITY...CHEROKEE AND SMOKEMONT...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

NCZ051-058-059-062-282100-
GRAHAM-MACON-NORTHERN JACKSON-SWAIN-
310 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN GRAHAM...NORTHERN
JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN MACON AND SWAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EST...

AT 304 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF
STECOAH TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAYESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FRANKLIN BY 320 PM EST.
  SMOKEMONT BY 325 PM EST.
  SYLVA BY 330 PM EST.
  BALSAM BY 335 PM EST.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THIS LINE IS PART OF A LARGER AREA OF STORMS WILL WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN LOCATIONS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

GAZ029-SCZ011-019-290100-
ELBERT-ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELBERTON...ABBEVILLE...GREENWOOD
639 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ELBERTON TO GREENWOOD THROUGH 8
PM EST...

A SERIES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FROM ELBERTON TO DUE WEST TO COKESBURY THROUGH
8 PM THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
745 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

SCZ009-012>014-290215-
YORK-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK HILL...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER
745 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT
THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...

A CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...AFFECTING
THE AREA FROM LAURENS TO UNION TO ROCK HILL THROUGH 10 PM THIS
EVENING. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AT RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER
HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

HG