Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS IN THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVE WAS TRIGGERING DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND NE GEORGIA. THESE AREAS
RECEIVED THE MOST INSOLATION TODAY WHICH BOOSTED SURFACE BASED CAPES
INTO THE 1000-2000J RANGE. 12Z NAM/GFS PUSH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z AS BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES
BY. WILL FORECAST NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ALL BUT MOUNTAINS
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT AFTER 00Z WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONTS UNTIL 03Z.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SE AND BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTRHERN
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. MOS AND MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR FROM N TO S OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR CONDTIONS EXPECTED
ALL AREAS BY ABOUT 2 AM. SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR SUN.
USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER MON...CLOSER TO AVG...AS
COOL...DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT-TUE...
PUTTING AREA IN S FLOW AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT..MAINLY 70S MTNS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MTNS FROM
THE NW TUE NIGHT SO HAVE BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
NW FLANK OF MTNS DURING THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HPC FCST USES BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO THIS SCENARIO. HI
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER SE OFF THE COAST WED WHICH INCREASES
WARM...MOIST S FLOW OVER REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO
AREA FROM THE NW WED AFTN WHILE UPPER TROF DIGS OVER GREAT LAKES
INTO MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY OVER AREA BY THU. STILL ADVERTISING
INCREASING CHANCE SHOWERS/TSTMS WED INTO THU WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER REGION FROM THE N ON FRI...KEEPING
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE OFF
COAST SAT AND TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM TO NEAR AVG FOR THE EARLY WEEKEND
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE EVERY AIR FIELD WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS AT
LEAST IN THE VICINITY....WITH KCLT HAVING THE HIGHEST CHACCE OF
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO OPERATIONS. DEEP CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING
IN THE NC PIEDMONT TO THE NW OF KCLT...AND THIS SHOULD DRIFT SE OVER
THE AIRPORT BY 20Z. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
CIG/VSBY...BUT ELECTED TO KEEP TEMPO GROUP IN MVFR RANGE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM N TO S AS UPPER VORT MAX
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THREAT OF THUNDER ENDS ALL TAF SITES BY 00Z.
ALL GUIDNACE INDICATES MID LEVEL CEILINGS AFTER THE STORMS CLEARING
BY 06Z. DID NOT FORECAST ANY FOG AS IT LOOKS LIKE MIXING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT TO PRECLUDE IT.

FOR THE EXTENDED...VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-131015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
603 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
PENNIES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAIL...GUSTY WIND
OR HIGH WATER CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
144 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

NCZ052-059-063-064-121845-
HAYWOOD-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
144 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HAYWOOD...JACKSON AND
TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 144 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CRUSO TO LAKE
THORPE. THESE STORMS WERE  NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  THORPE...WOLF MOUNTAIN...TUCKASEGEE...SUNBURST...SAPPHIRE...
  ROSMAN...LITTLE RIVER...LAKE TOXAWAY...CULLOWHEE...CRUSO...CEDAR
  MOUNTAIN...CASHIERS...BREVARD AND BALSAM GROVE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

GAZ010-017-121845-
HABERSHAM-RABUN-
145 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HABERSHAM AND RABUN COUNTIES
THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 143 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NACOOHE LAKE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CLAYTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  RABUN...NACOOHE LAKE...LAKE BURTON...TURNERVILLE...TIGER...TALLULAH
  FALLS...LAKEMONT...HOLLYWOOD AND CLAYTON.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LG

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