Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
239 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA OUT AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD FRONT
THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AXIS OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPES FROM 500-1000J CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
NE GEORGIA THROUGH WESTERN NC. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH NAM AND GFS DEVELOP CONVECTION IN THE
THIS AREA AND THEN MOVE IT SE OFF THE ESCARPMENT INTO THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
THEREFORE...WILL FEATURE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY ON...TRENDING THE HIGHER POPS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS. A BLEND OF MOS
NUMBERS LOOKS GOOD FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING S ACROSS THE AREA. THE DETAILS CONCERNING TIMING OF
FRONT AND THE LOCATION OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS STILL
SOMEWAHT UNCERTAIN. NAM IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH WHICH ALLOWS MORE OF THE AREA TO DESTABALIZE AND
CONSEQUENTLY MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WITH THE CONVECTION. GFS
QUICKER WITH THE BOUNDARY AND POOLS THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY THROUGH
THE PIEDMONTS. THUS...BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION USING
THE GFS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MINIMAL CHANCES ELSEWHERE. BEST COURSE AT THE MOMENT WOULD SEEM TO BE
TAKING A COMPROMISE OF THE SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD GIVE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA A HEALTHY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUINDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE PIEDMONTS IN THE AFTERNOON. POP GRID FOR
SAT AFTERNOON WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS IN THE PIEDMONTS SCALED BACK TO
LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME UPPER
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND AN UPPER SHORT
WAVE. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS WEAK SO THREAT OF SEVERE WILL BE IN THE
ISOLATED RANGE AT BEST. USED A MOS BLEND AGAIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SAT AS MAV NUMMBERS LOOK TO BE A CATEGORY TOO HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH COOLING SAT NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH S OF CWA WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY EARLY SUN MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N AND A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES COOLER MON...DOWN CLOSER TO AVG...AS COOL...DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HPC FCST LEANS TOWARD GFS TUE...THEN MORE TOWARD ECMWF WED-FRI. HI
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE E COAST TUE WHICH PUTS AREA IN S FLOW. THIS
SHOULD BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY OVER W CWA. WENT WITH DRY FCST TUE...THEN BROUGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MTNS TUE NIGHT. OFFSHORE HIGH MOVES
FARTHER SE WED WHICH INCREASES WARM...MOIST S FLOW OVER REGION...
AND A COLD FRONT IS STILL FCST TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW WED. THERE
IS A BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N OF
AREA...SO HAVE SOLID CHANCE POPS OVER MTNS WED...TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SE CWA...WITH CHANCE POPS MOVING WITH FRONT
ACROSS CWA FROM NW TO SE WED NIGHT BEFORE DWINDLING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE ON THU AS FRONT TRACKS SE OF AREA. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR AVIATION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
AFFECT AIR FIELDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AND AGAIN AFTER 16Z ON
SATURDAY. AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED OVER THE NC MOUNTAIONS THIS
AFTERNOON HAS ALREADY SUPPORTED SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. BOTH NAM AND GFS DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE IT SE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY A VCTS
ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH OR MOVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTIALLY...BUT HAVE PLAYED PERSISTENCE AT KAVL BRINGING LIFR FOG
CONDITIONS INTO THE AIR FIELD BY 06Z AND HOLDING ON TO THAT TIL
ABOUT 11Z. OTHER AIRPORTS SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF
MVFR FOG 10Z-12Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z SAT WITH
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 4000 FT BY 16Z. MENTIONED VCTS AT 16Z ALL
AIR FIELDS EXCEPT KAVL AND KHKY WHERE MODELS INDIDCATE PROBABLILITY
OF PRECIPIATION THE LEAST ON SAT.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER THE THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT WIL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH. VFR CONDTIONS
EXPECTED SUN INTO WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. AREAS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
609 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
609 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WIND OR
HAIL. SLOW-MOVING STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED...IF NOT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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