Alert archive / South Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 425, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 23, 2007, 8:29 PM EDT for Oconee County, Pickens County, South Carolina. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 23, 2007, 8:29 PM EDT (00:29 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 23, 2007, 9:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 46 min
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
Counties Oconee County, SC, Pickens County, SC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 765 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 51 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 40 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 58 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 23, 2:53 PM EDT, 5 hours 36 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 23, 2:53 PM EDT, 5 hours 36 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 253 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSISTING DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS REDEVELOPING OVER THE MTNS WHERE UPGLIDE IS BEST...AND TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHERE INSTABILITY BEST. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS AND SCATTERED ELSEWHERE INTO THE EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOPING INTO A THUNDERSTORM. MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE LOW...COLD FRONT AND THE RESULTANT LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND DEEP LIFT END UP. WILL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN MODEL AND THE UKMET. DECENT FORCING SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS THIS EVENING SO HAVE THE LIKELY POP THERE WITH SCT POP ELSEWHERE. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...NUMEROUS ALONG I-85 AND SCATTERED TO THE EAST. LOW TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE MILD AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR WED...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY AND RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SHOULD SEE SOME SUPPORT FROM DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET. STRONG MOISTURE INFLUX EXPECTED AS STRONG H85 WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL BE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AS WELL...MAINLY NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN LIKELY POP SINCE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING FOR BEST PRECIP CHC. DID INCLUDE CHC THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DAY OF TRICKY HIGH TEMP FORECAST. REJECTED COOLER MAV TEMPS BASED ON ITS FASTER TIMING. HIGHS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME NEAR 80 NUMBERS IN THE AREA EAST OF I-77 AND SOUTH OF I-85. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... IN ALL HONESTY...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT AN ORANGUTAN WITH A DARTBOARD COULD PROVIDE JUST AS PLAUSIBLE A FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS I CAN. THE 12Z GFS IS APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 06Z RUN IN SWEEPING OCCLUDED FRONTAL BAND/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. (PREVIOUS RUN HAD THE WET WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SAT AFTERNOON.) THIS OCCURS AS THE STRONG UPPER VORTEX LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE NAM IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...RESULTING IN THE DEEP MOISTURE BAND REMAINING OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. HPC PREFERS THE COMPROMISE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GEM/ UKMET/LATEST ECMWF. FOR OUR PURPOSES... IT APPEARS THAT A NAM/GFS BLEND IS A GOOD COMPROMISE TO THE HPC COMPROMISE. WITH THIS IN MIND...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL EXIST WED NIGHT...AS SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST...AND ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW PROVIDES SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE ATTM TO FORECAST THE CATEGORICAL POPS SUGGESTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS ONE MAY THINK. WHILE THE GFS BLASTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THE NAM INDICATES COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPING IN SITU ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/ PRECIP. AS A RESULT...MAV AND MET MAX TEMPS ARE QUITE SIMILAR. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POPS/TEMPS INCREASES EXPONENTIALLY WITH TIME THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM...SO WE HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...FEATURING CHANCE POPS WITH COOL DAYS AND RELATIVELY WARM NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATEST GFS SHENANIGANS HAVE REQUIRED SOME LAST SECOND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED RANGE. A CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY PICKED UP BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND KICKED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE DEEP MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON...SO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE UPPER LOW IS OUT OF THE PICTURE...THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON A TRANSITION TO A FLAT...ZONAL PATTERN WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR OVER SC BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER NC. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO DROP BACK TO MVFR CIGS AFTER SUNSET THEN DOWN TO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR LOW CLOUDS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS COULD BRIEFLY RESTRICT VSBY AT KAVL THIS EVENING. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR VSBY OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WED. EXPECT A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS LATE WED MORNING. VSBY IMPROVEMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING...BUT COULD REMAIN MVFR AS WELL. OUTLOOK TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...BSH NEAR TERM...RWH SHORT TERM...JDL LONG TERM...JDL AVIATION...RWH
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 23, 4:23 PM EDT, 4 hours 6 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 423 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-242030- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER- IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA- ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS- PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK- ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 423 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LANE
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Oct 23, 3:42 PM EDT, 4 hours 47 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 342 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007 SCZ014-232015- CHESTER- 342 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CHESTER COUNTY THROUGH 415 PM EDT... AT 339 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GREAT FALLS...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LANCASTER...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CEDAR CREEK RESERVOIR...GREAT FALLS RESERVOIR...FISHING CREEK RESERVOIR...GREAT FALLS AND FORT LAWN. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. 07
Special weather statement, Oct 23, 4:23 PM EDT, 4 hours 6 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 423 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007 NCZ082-232115- UNION- 423 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM EDT... AT 419 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF WAXHAW...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF LANCASTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MINERAL SPRINGS...UNIONVILLE...WEDDINGTON...WAXHAW...STALLINGS...MONROE... INDIAN TRAIL AND FAIRVIEW. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. 07
Special weather statement, Oct 23, 6:41 PM EDT, 1 hour 48 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 641 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007 GAZ010-017-232345- HABERSHAM-RABUN- 641 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HABERSHAM AND RABUN COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT... AT 639 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLEVELAND...OR 13 MILES EAST OF DAHLONEGA... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE RABUN...NACOOHE LAKE...LAKE BURTON...TURNERVILLE...TIGER...TALLULAH FALLS...SKY VALLEY...PINE MOUNTAIN...MOUNTAIN CITY...MOCCASIN CREEK STATE PARK...LAKEMONT...HOLLYWOOD...DILLARD...DEMOREST...CLAYTON... CLARKESVILLE AND BATESVILLE. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. 07
Special weather statement, Oct 23, 7:19 PM EDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 719 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007 GAZ018-026-232345- FRANKLIN-STEPHENS- 719 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN AND STEPHENS COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT... AT 718 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CLARKESVILLE TO ARCADE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WHITWORTH...TOCCOA...ROYSTON...MARTIN...LAVONIA...FRANKLIN SPRINGS...EASTANOLEE...CARNESVILLE...BOYDVILLE AND AVALON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. 07
Special weather statement, Oct 23, 7:44 PM EDT, 45 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 744 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007 GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ062>064-SCZ001-002-004-005-240045- FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-HABERSHAM-MACON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-RABUN-SOUTHERN JACKSON-STEPHENS-TRANSYLVANIA- 744 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN HABERSHAM...EASTERN RABUN...NORTHERN FRANKLIN...OCONEE...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON... SOUTHEASTERN MACON...STEPHENS...WESTERN PICKENS AND WESTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT... AT 739 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CLAYTON TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOMER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR... TOCCOA BY 750 PM EDT. EASTANOLEE BY 755 PM EDT. HIGHLANDS BY 805 PM EDT. WHITWORTH BY 810 PM EDT. LAKE HARTWELL BY 815 PM EDT. CASHIERS BY 820 PM EDT. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. 07
The office that day
Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 10:55 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Polk, Rutherford | 50 min |
| Oct 23, 8:31 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | GSP | Oconee, Pickens | 44 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in South Carolina, 2007Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.