Severe Thunderstorm Warning 422, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING
OUR AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST RUC AND NAM RUNS DEVELOP GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE (1000-850 MB
LAYER) ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND UP INTO THE LEE SLOPES OF THE NC MTNS
AND FOOTHILLS. LATEST TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM TCLT SHOWS
DEEP LAYER NNE FLOW...WHILE FLOW OVER THE THE WESTERN PART OF THE
UPSTATE IS MORE WESTERLY. THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE THE NAM AND RUC
WIND FIELDS ARE VERIFYING WELL SO FAR. AS A RESULT...I/LL UP POPS
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND INTO THE NC MTNS AND WRN FOOTHILLS...WHILE
DROPPING THEM A BIT IN THE I-77 CORRIDOR OF NC.

THERE HAS BEEN ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AS THE
AREA OF DEEP LAYER RH THAT HAS BEEN TEASING US JUST TO THE WEST THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS FINALLY OVERSPREAD A GOOD BIT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MOIST 12 UTC SOUNDINGS SHOULD YIELD QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER
ERN TN ATTM...EVEN WITHOUT FULL SUN. HOWEVER...THE MORE HEATING WE
SEE...THE MORE WIDESPREAD WL BE THE CONVECTTION.

WITH APPROACHING FRONT EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT TOWARD DAYBREAK. MORNING LOWS WILL
SETTLE AROUND 70 PIEDMONT...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GULF STATES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH
DEAMPLIFIES. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS LOW IS DEPICTED BY THE
MODELS CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO THE  AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...INTRODUCING AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO HIGHER TERRAIN THAT PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. CHANCE POPS
WILL BE CARRIED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
FROM JUST ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AS
THE COOLER AIR MASS EDGES SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES THE PROGRESSION OF AN EAST COAST UPPER
TROUGH...FOLLOWED BY THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EXTENDING OVER OUR AREA. INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED
ALONG THE GULF COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL COL BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
RIDGE KEEPS ANY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
POPS WILL NOT BE CARRIED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES...A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE NORTH OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SUPPORTING SMALL POPS WITH TIME. BY THURSDAY THE FRONT WASHES
OUT...BUT A CONTINUED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP OFFSET
TEMPERATURES GAINS ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHRA AND TSTMS SHUD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND I HAVE VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES AT VARIOUS TIME OVER THE NEXT 6
HORUS OR SO. PREVAILING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS NE ATTM...AND THIS
GENERAL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...THOUGH WINDS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...BUT FORCING IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ME TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING IN THE TAFS. AS FOR VSBYS...HAVE MOST SITES GOING DOWN LATE
WITH MVFR FOG/HAZE...SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. HOWEVER...ANY
SITES THAT SEE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY FALL MUCH MORE
OVERNIGHT.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...THRU WED. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE FRI-SAT AS A FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL S OF THE
AREA SUN...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION MON-WED. MVFR MORNING
FOG AND HAZE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH IFR
FOG POSSIBLE AT KAVL.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-
     057-069>072-082.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-037-048>053-056-058-059-
062>065-068-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-311915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-DAVIE-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
303 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ036-057-069>072-082-311915-
IREDELL-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
303 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

07

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
404 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

NCZ033-302100-
AVERY-
404 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST AVERY COUNTY THROUGH
500 PM EDT...

AT 402 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF SEVEN DEVILS...OR 6 MILES EAST
OF NEWLAND. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT DRIFTING TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NEWLAND BY 500 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
406 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

SCZ005-010-302100-
ANDERSON-GREATER PICKENS-
406 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ANDERSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 402 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF LIBERTY...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PICKENS. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
413 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

SCZ007-302115-
SPARTANBURG-
413 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPARTANBURG...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PACOLET BY 515 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

KRENTZ