Severe Thunderstorm Warning 418, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TODAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
LATE THURSDAY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA OF
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NC MTNS...THE SRN NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS
AND THE NRN UPSTATE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD
DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY UP IN RNK/S AREA THAT SHOULD MOVE DOWN THE LEE SLOPES AS
WELL. WITH DRY MID LEVELS AND HOT TEMPS...DAPE VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH
OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AND THE EASTERN SC UPSTATE.
EXPECT ISOLATED MICROBURSTS TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

ON THU THE NAM DEEP LAYER RH/S INCREASE AND A MODEST SHORT WAVE
DROPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HAVE GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE IN THE LEE...SO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HARD TO SAY WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE WILL
BE AS THE OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. PROBABLY THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE MOST COVERAGE...BUT WILL GO WITH 30 TO 40
POPS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN AND SRN TIER
OF THE FA. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...WHICH PUTS PARTS OF THE
UPSTATE INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRI...H5 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE WEST...LEAVING A H5 TROF ALONG
THE EAST COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LLVL MOISTURE WILL
POOL ENOUGH TO LOWER THE LCL BELOW H85. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SFC CONVERGENCE MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE MTNS FRI
AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
YIELD SCT COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA BY FRI AFTERNOON. I WILL ADVERTISE
30-40 PERCENT FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...THE MET AND SREF POP
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LIKELY COVERAGE. WARM LLVL THICKNESSES AND MOS
CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM M80S IN THE MTN
VALLEYS TO L90S EAST.

FRI NIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEBRIS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY
CONTINUE INTO DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. I WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LINGERING CONVECTION AND KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND U60S TO 70 EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW RICH MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE GFS MOISTURE IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE THE NAM SHOWS
A STEADY MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A
GULF LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. GIVEN THE MOISTURE ON BOTH
MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE...I WILL KEEP CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA.

SUN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN AN LIGHT UPSLOPE H85 WIND AND NE SFC WIND.
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA REMAINS FAIRLY LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF NC MAY SEE LI/S FALL TO -1
TO -2. I WILL PAINT CHC TO SCHC POPS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NC MTNS.

MON THROUGH WED...H5 RIDGE MAKE A MODEST RETURN TO THE SE U.S.
YIELDING A SHALLOW INVERSION AROUND H7. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE WITH FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY GAINS EACH AFTERNOON. I WILL
USE HPC POPS AND ADVERTISE DRY CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING FOR SW FLOW OVER THE UPSTATE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER
NC ALONG A TROF AXIS THIS AFTN. BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE TROF...ALONG A LINE FROM KAVL TO KGSP...AND I HAVE VCTS
AND VCSH IN AT THESE SITES RESPECTIVELY. LAST NIGHT KAVL DIDN/T GO
DOWN AS MUCH AS EXPECTED BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER. IF THE AIRPORT
DOESN/T SEE ANY RAIN THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THEY DO SEE RAIN...THEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
GO DOWN DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT. IF THE NAM TURNS OUT TO BE
RIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TNGT AT CLT
NORTH OF THE TROF. I DON/T HAVE THAT IN THE TAF...BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH. WINDS LOOK TO BE E TO NE MOST AREAS TOMORROW.
THUNDER CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD IN THE AFTN...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...THRU MON. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE VCNTY KAVL FRI...AND
AT ALL SITES SAT AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AND MON AND TUE SHOULD BE
DRY. EXPECT TYPICAL MVFR MORNING FOG AND HAZE...WITH IFR PSBL AT
KAVL. LESS FOG AND HAZE IS EXPECTED IN THE DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CONSOLE REPLACEMENT SYSTEM...CRS...THAT MANAGES THE BROADCAST ON
NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS DOWN. TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE
PROBLEM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-
     057-069>072-082.
     AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ036-057-069>072-082.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY
EQUIPMENT...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-037-048>053-056-058-059-
062>065-068-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-301945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-DAVIE-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
332 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN AGAIN TODAY.
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL AND/OR
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ036-057-069>072-082-301945-
IREDELL-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
332 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN AGAIN TODAY.
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL AND/OR
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

NCZ064-065-291945-
HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
257 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HENDERSON AND NORTHEASTERN
TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTH OF ETOWAH...OR 8 MILES WEST OF
HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FLAT
  ROCK...TUXEDO...MOUNTAIN HOME...MILLS RIVER...LITTLE RIVER...
  HENDERSONVILLE...ETOWAH AND EAST FLAT ROCK.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

NCZ082-292030-
UNION-
328 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH 430
PM EDT...

AT 325 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF UNIONVILLE...OR 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MONROE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MARSHVILLE BY 430 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

ARK

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