Severe Thunderstorm Warning 413, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
LIFT OUT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AND STALL OUT OVER THE MIDLANDS OR
COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS IT DISSIPATES.  EXPECT ANOTHER
FRONT TO REACH OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION LINING UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EASTWARD.
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE THE BLUE RIDGE FROM NE GA TO THE SC/NC BORDER.
SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF NE GA AND THE
WESTERN UPSTATE...WITH LOWER SCATTERED OVER NC AND THE EASTERN
UPSTATE. THE CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING THEN
DIMINISH BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL EXPECT SEVERE STORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG
AND DCAPE NEAR 900 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WITH
WEAK WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 70 OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND MID 60S MTN
VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY...SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AS WEAK UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS. AT THE SURFACE...TODAY/S SFC FRONT STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH. WITH LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
OUR SOUTH....CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY. THAT
SAID ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE...SO HAVE ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION NORTH AND LOW CHC SOUTH. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...BUT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE MIDLANDS AND COASTAL PLAIN OF
THE CAROLINAS WILL DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY. HAVE CHC POP IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHC EVERYWHERE ELSE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL SOME AFTN INSTABILITY. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FCST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY...WITH EVEN MORE DRYING OF LOW-MID LEVELS
TAKING PLACE. UPSLOPE FLOW LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH WED AFTN...THAT EVEN
WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY EXPECTED...ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP. SO KEPT SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE MTNS AND DRY ON PIEDMONT.
THE SFC HIGH FLATTENS OUT THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK STILL FCST TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HAVE MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT AND 80S MTN VALLEYS
TUESDAY-THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...WITH A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH. IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER GREAT
LAKES...CONTINENTAL AIR TRAVERSES EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE FLOW BEING
MAINLY ZONAL...MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ONLY MODEST MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED FROM
THE COOLER ATLANTIC WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW...WITH THE BULK
OF GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO TX. SO CUT BACK ON POP FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HPC GUIDANCE. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND
DECREASING LOW LVL THICKNESSES. THE 12Z/26 GFS IS STILL BULLISH ON
CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWFA WITH A HINT OF WEDGING SETTING UP SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...BUT WEAKER THAN THE 06Z/26 RUN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT KAVL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON..THEN HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE OTHER SITES FROM 19Z ONWARD. WILL AMEND AS
CELLS APPROACH AIRFIELDS. EXPECT VFR UNLESS CELLS MOVE OVER.
CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR FROM ABOUT 09Z UNTIL
AROUND 14Z MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS KAVL WHERE IFR LIKELY. IN
FACT...WITH RAIN OCCURRING ATTM...VLIFR VSBY AND CIG ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE.

SCT AFTN-EVE CONVECTION EXPECTED MON AND TUE BEFORE SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N FOR MID-WEEK. THEN ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED
MOVE IN THU. PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH DAY... ESPECIALLY MTN
VALLEYS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
545 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-271000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
545 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 85. ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND/OR LARGE HAIL. THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

DEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N CLAYTON             34.95N 83.40W
08/26/2007                   RABUN              GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN DOWN AND POWERLINES DOWN.

&&

JEFFT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
317 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

NCZ051-262015-
SWAIN-
317 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SWAIN COUNTY THROUGH 415
PM EDT...

AT 312 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRYSON CITY...OR NEAR
CLINGMANS DOME. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

SCZ005-262000-
GREATER PICKENS-
326 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PICKENS COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM EDT...

AT 320 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLEMSON...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH PER HOUR...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

NCZ502-262000-
GREATER CALDWELL-
334 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM EDT...

AT 329 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GAMEWELL...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LENOIR...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GAMEWELL BY 340 PM EDT.
  LENOIR BY 400 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH PER HOUR...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
347 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

SCZ010-262015-
ANDERSON-
347 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ANDERSON COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM EDT...

AT 341 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF EASLEY...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PICKENS. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH PER HOUR...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
403 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

GAZ029-262030-
ELBERT-
403 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN ELBERT COUNTY THROUGH
430 PM EDT...

AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BOWMAN...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELBERTON.
THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH PER HOUR...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LANE