Severe Thunderstorm Warning 359, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
305 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOW ITS RETROGRESSION AND BUILD NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ITS AXIS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE... FAVORING
CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR...WHILE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING TRIGGERS CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS...BOTH LATE TODAY AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY. VERY SMALL POPS WILL BE CARRIED DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR EVEN LATE TONIGHT AS THE MODEL SHOW MOISTURE
LINGERING THERE ALONG THE VORT TRACK.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
THAN THEY WERE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...AS HEIGHTS HAVE
FALLEN EAST OF THE RETROGRADING RIDGE...AND A NORTHEAST WIND SETS
UP BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH NOW OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE VARIES WILDLY
ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...WITH THE MAV IN THE UPPER
90S...THE MET 10 DEGREES LOWER...AND THE FWC IN THE MIDDLE. THE MAV
HAS HAD A HISTORY OF OVERFORECASTING THIS HEATWAVE...BUT WITH ONLY
SMALL HEIGHT FALLS...THE CURRENT FORECAST...BETWEEN THE MAV AND
FWC...WILL BE CUT BY ONLY ONE DEGREE. DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN
RECENTLY...MORE LIKE CLIMATOLOGY...BUT THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE WELL
UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND HIGH
RH VALUES SUGGEST AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK (LOWER 70S PIEDMONT).

FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND
LOW LVL THICKNESSES BEGIN TO CREEP UP A BIT. WITH RIDGE AXIS
BASICALLY DIRECTLY OVER THE CWFA...CONVECTION WILL BE SCARCE ONCE
AGAIN. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...CAPES LOOK REALLY HIGH (ESP OVER THE MTNS) WITH THE NAM
GREATER THAN THE GFS. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE SIMILIAR TO THURSDAY
(MIDDLE 90S PIEDMONT/ 80S MTN VALLEYS).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY...AS SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFFSHORE...WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LVL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE 12Z/22 GFS LIKE SO MANY OTHER RUNS OF LATE HAVE
PUSHED BACK THE MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OFF THE EAST COAST...LOW LVL FLOW
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN INCREASED CHC OF AFTN CONVECTION.
THOUGH...IT STILL LOOKS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE LATEST
TEMP GRIDS HAVE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT (A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE 12Z/22 MEX TEMPS).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FAVORING
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF KCLT...WITH MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY WESTWARD TO KHKY...KGSP AND KGMU. OROGRAPHIC
FORCING WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR KAVL. COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE LOW ENOUGH THAT PINPOINTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL IT FORMS...AND THEREFORE THUNDER WILL ONLY BE CARRIED AT THE
VICINITY OF THE AIRPORTS AT THIS TIME...WITH SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS
AND A HIGH BROKEN ANVIL CEILING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH TO
THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW IN SC SETTLES
FARTHER SOUTH. KAVL IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REACH IFR VISIBILITY
IN FOG BEFORE DAWN AS COOL AIR POOLS IN THE VALLEY. GUIDANCE ALSO
SUPPORTS FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KHKY...BUT AS NO RAIN HAS FALLEN THERE
YET TODAY...A LOW END VFR RESTRICTION WILL BE CARRIED. BY MORNING
ANVIL CIRRUS WILL HAVE MOVED OFF AND SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL FORM.
WITH THE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST...KAVL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. ISOLATED LATE DAY TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW VFR FOG AND HAZE IS ANTICIPATED EACH MORNING
AROUND DAYBREAK...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE ON
SUNDAY...STALLING TO THE NORTH...THEN DISSIPATING IN THE
VICINITY...AND SUPPORTING A GREATER CHANCE OF CONVECTION...AND
POSSIBLY MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
503 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
501>510-SCZ001>003-230915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
503 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM LATER
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ004>014-019-230915-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
503 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE UPSTATE AND WESTERN PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM LATER TODAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 102 AND 104
DEGREES. IF THE VALUES RISE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER...THEN A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WEAR LIGHT
COLORED CLOTHING AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AN AIR CONDITIONED
LOCATION DURING PROLONGED PERIODS OF HOT WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

MCAVOY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

NCZ064-221815-
TRANSYLVANIA-
150 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY
THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 150 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF ETOWAH...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BREVARD...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATION...

BREVARD...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

NCZ082-221945-
UNION-
303 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM EDT...

AT 303 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIDLAND...OR 16 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MONROE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL
AFFECT THE NEW SALEM AREA BY 315 PM.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. INTENSE LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOODFIN                 35.64N 82.59W
08/21/2007                   BUNCOMBE           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            A COUPLE TREES DOWN.

&&
CORRECTED FOR TIME OF EVENT.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

NCZ056-069-221945-
CATAWBA-LINCOLN-
319 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA AND WESTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 319 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF VALE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF
HICKORY...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VALE BY 335 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. INTENSE LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

HG