Severe Thunderstorm Warning 335, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
710 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ALOFT DIFFICULT TO FIND IN LATEST MODEL RUNS. SFC HEATING
UP...CU DEVELOPING AND CAPES UP OVER 1000 J/K MTNS...SO WILL HOLD ON
TO ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS OVER MTNS INTO THIS EVE. WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR 70 PIEDMONT...UPPER 50S AND 60S MTNS.

SUN...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SE
OF AREA...PUTTING CWA IN WEAK SW FLOW AT THE SFC. OTHERWISE LITTLE
CHANGE IN PATTERN WITH RIDGE ALOFT. EXPECT SCT CU TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MTN SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGHS MAY BE A DEG OR
TWO WARMER S ZONES. WENT WITH MID 90S PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S AND 80S
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA DURING EARLY PART OF THE WEEK LEAVES US WITH
HOT TEMPERATURES AND ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL TSTMS THROUGHOUT AREA.
CAPES FAVOR MTN COUNTIES...BUT THE BEST I CAN JUSTIFY IF SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBS.  MAIN CONCERN IS HEAT WITH INDECES OF MORE THE 100
ALONG INTERSTATE 85 AND 77 CORRIDORS. I SUSPECT WE WILL BE DEALING
WITH AIR QUALITY ISSUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TOO.-

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL OF CHOICE REMAINS THE GFS.  BUT THERE ISNT THAT MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
BY MIDWEEK RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE...GIVING US SOME NORTHEAST
FLOW AT HIER ELEVATIONS.  WHILE MAIN CHANGE IN DYNAMICS IS
FURTHER TO THE EAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH
WESTWARD WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A LITTLE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING...AND WILL ONLY BE CARRIED AT AFFECTED TAF SITES. A LEE
TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED EAST THIS EVENING...ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS AT
SOME TAF SITES TO BECOME NORTHERLY...AND MODEL WIND FIELDS SUGGEST
THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE. TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE DRYING OF THE LOW
LEVELS TONIGHT...WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRUS REMAINING
OVERHEAD...THEN A RETURN OF SCATTERED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES...AND FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS
VALLEYS...AFFECTING ONLY KAVL...WHERE MVFR AND TEMPORARY IFR
VISIBILITY WILL BE CARRIED. WINDS WILL COME UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUDAN
AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER ENERGY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN POTION OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THEREFORE
CONVECTION WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG AND ISOLD AFTN-EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS...MAINLY MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-
     057-069>072-082.
     AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ036-057-069>072-082.
SC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ001>008-010>013-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...VAD
LONG TERM...VAD
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
659 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-037-048>053-056-058-059-
062>065-068-501>510-SCZ009-014-052300-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-DAVIE-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
YORK-CHESTER-
659 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ001>008-010>013-019-052300-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
659 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ036-057-069>072-082-052300-
IREDELL-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
659 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
525 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007

NCZ052-042215-
HAYWOOD-
525 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY
THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 517 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRUSO...OR 9 MILES EAST OF
WAYNESVILLE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CRUSO BY 605 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007

NCZ052-042230-
HAYWOOD-
548 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY THROUGH
630 PM EDT...

AT 539 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF CANTON...OR 9 MILES EAST OF
WAYNESVILLE. THIS STORM WAS DRIFTING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CANTON BY 605 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
557 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007

NCZ501-502-042230-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
557 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTY THROUGH
630 PM EDT...

AT 557 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF PATTERSON...OR 9 MILES NORTH
OF LENOIR. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PATTERSON
  AND LENOIR.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

BSH