Severe Thunderstorm Warning 330, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
705 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 18Z LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CAPES HAVE MANAGED TO POOL
AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. CAPE VALUES MAY REDUCE A
BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER MIXING OF SFC DEWPOINTS. DCAPE
VALUES ARE ALSO HIGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH VALUES AS HIGH AS
1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL...AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL SVR
EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH A GOOD CHANCE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MTNS UNTIL 6Z.
AFTER 6Z...CHCS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT
COVERAGE EAST SHOULD REMAIN ISO AT BEST. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A BROAD LOW WITHIN THE LLVLS...850-700MB. AROUND H5...A S/W
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE S/W AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF DECENT COVERAGE. THE POP
FORECAST WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TODAY...LIKELY WEST AND CHC EAST.
THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL ALSO REMAIN THE SAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...AS SEEN AT 700MB...PARKS ITSELF OVER SW
VA/NRN TN EARLY SUNDAY AND DRFITS SLOWLY WEST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SUPPORTS AN AXIS OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE...THE NEXT SPOKE OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WEAK E COAST TROUGH AND HIGH LAYER
RH/S SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. I/VE UPPED POPS ACCORDINGLY. WITH A LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE LEE SLOPES...SOME CELLS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO ANCHOR IN ONE SPOT WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE CLOSED
OFF WITH THE LOW AND SLOWER TO MOVE IT EASTWARD. THE EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS WERE GOING BACK AND FORTH ON THIS SOLUTION...AND AS THIS FLOP
FLOPPING IS CONTINUING INTO THE SHORT RANCE...CONFIDENCE IN MONDAY/S
FORECAST IS LOW. FOR NOW I/VE GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH POPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA. A
NNE FLOW SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY COOL...THOUGH POOLING DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY KEEP IT FEELING HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST AND THE GREAT LAKES STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WEAK LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST
OF THE FA...BUT NOT FAR TO THE SE. HPC HAS THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
SOUTH OF THE FA TUE-THU. WHILE THEY DID HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THEIR
GUIDANCE GRIDS...I/VE REMOVED THOSE AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST FRONT EH MOUNTAINS TOWARD
KHKY...KGSP AND KGMU. TEMPORARY THUNDER WILL BE CARRIED WHERE RADAR
TRENDS WARRANT. A SEPARATE CELL WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF
KAND...WHERE AGAIN TEMPORARY THUNDER WILL BE CARRIED. VISIBILITIES
MAY BE RESTRICTED BY THUNDER...BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR. LATE TONIGHT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT ALTOCUMULUS WILL
BE THE PREDOMINANT CLOUD DECK. NOT MUCH FOG OCCURRED LAST NIGHT DUE
TO ANVIL CIRRUS CEILINGS...AND WITH A LOWER AND THICKER CEILING...
THE BEST CHANCE OF FOG WILL BE AT KAVL WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED AND
COOL AIR WILL POOL IN THE VALLEY. CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH HEATING LATE SATURDAY MORNING...AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
BE GREATER AS UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A LEE TROUGH FORMS. MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM IN THE AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND THUNDER WILL BE CARRIED IN THE
VICINITY AT KAVL.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MOIST AIRMASS AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED MORNING FOG SCATTERED LATE DAY CONVECTION INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO
LESS CONVECTION AND FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-280915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
515 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
AFFECTED LOCATIONS. IF MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE SAME
LOCATION OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...AS WELL AS THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FROM
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE ASHEVILLE         35.61N 82.53W
07/27/2007                   BUNCOMBE           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            BUNCOMBE COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS CENTER REPORTED FOUR TREES
            DOWN FROM STORM WINDS.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ064-280015-
TRANSYLVANIA-
716 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY
THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 712 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
725 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S WACO                35.35N 81.43W
07/27/2007                   CLEVELAND          NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED STORM SPOTTER REPORTED A SEVERE GUST BROUGHT
            DOWN SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS IN THEIR YARD WITH ONE LIMB
            CRASHING INTO THE HOUSE NEARLY BREAKING A WINDOW.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             5 N ETOWAH              35.39N 82.60W
07/27/2007  E0.75 INCH       HENDERSON          NC   PUBLIC

            A PUBLIC REPORT OF THREE-QUARTER INCH DIAMETER HAIL
            FALLING FOR ABOUT FIVE MINUTES ON WATAGNEE TRAIL.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
802 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E WACO                35.36N 81.41W
07/27/2007                   CLEVELAND          NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WACO FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED TWO MOBILE HOMES BLOWN OFF
            THEIR FOUNDATIONS. NO ONE AT THE RESIDENCE AND NO
            INJURIES.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ069-280030-
LINCOLN-
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY THROUGH
830 PM EDT...

AT 804 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR IRON STATION...OR 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LINCOLNTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  LOWESVILLE...LINCOLNTON...IRON STATION...DENVER AND BOGER CITY.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

ARK