Severe Thunderstorm Warning 326, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE 18Z LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CAPES HAVE MANAGED TO POOL
AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. CAPE VALUES MAY REDUCE A
BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER MIXING OF SFC DEWPOINTS. DCAPE
VALUES ARE ALSO HIGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH VALUES AS HIGH AS
1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL...AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL SVR
EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH A GOOD CHANCE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MTNS UNTIL 6Z.
AFTER 6Z...CHCS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT
COVERAGE EAST SHOULD REMAIN ISO AT BEST. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A BROAD LOW WITHIN THE LLVLS...850-700MB. AROUND H5...A S/W
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE S/W AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF DECENT COVERAGE. THE POP
FORECAST WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TODAY...LIKELY WEST AND CHC EAST.
THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL ALSO REMAIN THE SAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SATURDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...AS SEEN AT 700MB...PARKS ITSELF OVER
SW VA/NRN TN EARLY SUNDAY AND DRFITS SLOWLY WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS SUPPORTS AN AXIS OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE...THE NEXT SPOKE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WEAK E COAST TROUGH AND HIGH
LAYER RH/S SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. I/VE UPPED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
WITH A LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE LEE SLOPES...SOME CELLS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ANCHOR IN ONE SPOT WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE CLOSED
OFF WITH THE LOW AND SLOWER TO MOVE IT EASTWARD. THE EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS WERE GOING BACK AND FORTH ON THIS SOLUTION...AND AS THIS FLOP
FLOPPING IS CONTINUING INTO THE SHORT RANCE...CONFIDENCE IN MONDAY/S
FORECAST IS LOW. FOR NOW I/VE GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH POPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA. A
NNE FLOW SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY COOL...THOUGH POOLING DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY KEEP IT FEELING HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS HEIGHTS RISE
ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST AND THE GREAT LAKES STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE WEAK LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FA...BUT NOT FAR TO THE SE. HPC HAS THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FA TUE-THU. WHILE THEY DID HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THEIR
GUIDANCE GRIDS...I/VE REMOVED THOSE AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS AND INTO THE NRN NC
FOOTHILLS AT 18Z. THE COVERAGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND AS A S/W APPROACHES THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER I-77 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT GOOD COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL CARRY A CB MENTION IN EACH
TAF...HIGHLIGHTING KAVL...KAND...AND KHKY. THE CONCERN OVERNIGHT
WILL REMAIN THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
IT APPEARS THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION WILL REDUCE SHARPLY AFTER
6Z. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 9Z...LIMITING VIS TO 3-6 NM.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MOIST AIRMASS AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED MORNING FOG SCATTERED LATE DAY CONVECTION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-280915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
515 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
AFFECTED LOCATIONS. IF MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE SAME
LOCATION OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...AS WELL AS THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FROM
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ033-272045-
AVERY-
414 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AVERY COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM
EDT...

AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF NEWLAND...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ065-272130-
HENDERSON-
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HENDERSON COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM
EDT...

AT 432 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FLAT ROCK BY 445 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ501-502-272145-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
438 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CALDWELL COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM
EDT...

AT 436 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GLOBE...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF BLOWING ROCK...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PATTERSON BY 520 PM EDT.
  5 MILES NORTH OF LENOIR BY 545 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ052-053-272115-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-
450 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN HAYWOOD AND SOUTHWESTERN
BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 449 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF CANTON...OR 12 MILES WEST OF
ASHEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
453 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ053-272130-
BUNCOMBE-
453 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BUNCOMBE COUNTY THROUGH
530 PM EDT...

AT 449 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR UNC ASHEVILLE...OR 4 MILES NORTH OF
ASHEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE BY 505 PM EDT.
  ASHEVILLE MALL BY 515 PM EDT.
  BILTMORE FOREST BY 530 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

ARK

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