Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A BERMUDA HIGH
SETS UP. THE HIGH WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE BETTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN GULF MOISTURE AND KEEPING SKIES PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY. GUIDANCE SHOWS A MAINLY MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS
DECREASING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
WARM WITH CLOUDS AND INCREASING DEW POINTS.

TUESDAY...WITH CONTINUED RIDGE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH BUILDING
OFFSHORE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER SWLY FLOW. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND TYPICAL ISO/SCT AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS. GUIDANCE
SHOWS A LITTLE LESS INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL
WARMING. GOING POP FCST LOOKS GOOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAX
TEMPS. UNDERCUT GFS MOS MAX TEMPS A DEG OR TWO...AS IT SEEMS A BIT
OVERDONE. BUT MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT (80S MTNS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE EJECTS EASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HELPING TO DEEPEN THE EAST COAST TROF. THIS TROF
HOLDS ON THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG A COLD FRONT. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES TRACK EASTWARD AND END UP OVER OR JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE MODELS DEPICT SIMILAR TIMING OF
THE FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS STRONGER AND MORE CONSOLIDATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. THE CANADIAN IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE NAM WHILE THE 09Z SREF HAS A NOTICEABLY WEAKER SHORT
WAVE AND SFC LOW.

TUE NIGHT EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
THE MTNS MAY LINGER ALL NIGHT AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BETTER FORCING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...GOOD FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS OVER
THE MTNS. HAVE RAISED POP TO GOOD CHC ACROSS THIS AREA. POP TAPERS
TO LOW CHC OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOST OF THE PIEDMONT. FORCING AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKER THERE...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FRONT ENTERS THE AREA...BUT GFS SHOWS A MORE
DIURNAL TREND THAN THE NAM WITH ITS STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW. HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR POP WHICH MEANS ONLY A SMALL
DIURNAL TREND FOR THE MTNS...WITH GOOD CHC MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
COVERAGE DROPS TO ISOLATED FOR PART OF THE FOOTHILLS AND MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT.

DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE NAM KEEPS THE ACTIVITY GOING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH THE GFS SHOWING DIURNAL
TIMING WITH CONVECTION MAINLY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH. THE NAM KEEPS
DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE
THE GFS DRIES US OUT BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. THE 09Z SREF SHOWS DECENT CHANCES OF INSTABILITY MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE
MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WITH DIURNAL POP IN THE LOW CHC RANGE FOR MUCH
OF THE CWFA.

EXPECT LOWS AND HIGHS TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TO AN UNSETTLED LONG TERM FORECAST FOR
THE FA...AS EASTERN TROF SETS UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
STALLING OUT OVER CENTRAL SC AND GA ON SATURDAY. WITH RETURN FLOW
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...CHANCE POPS ARE CARRIED THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY
TO UPDATE WITH LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS TROF IS IN PLACE. LOOKS LIKE
SOME WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROF LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND ITS AMPLITUDE DECREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
WITH THE MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE NOW INCLUDED VCSH AND CB
MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES...AS CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MOST OF THE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTS SOME
MVFR VSBY AT ALL SITES...BUT STILL ONLY KEPT THE FOG TUESDAY MORNING
AT KAVL. SOME OF THE SITES WILL LIKELY GET A SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WITH THAT AN INCREASE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT (MAY BE
INCLUDED IN NEXT ISSUANCE).

AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
THE AREA. LOWER VSBYS IN FOG IS EXPECTED EACH MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
636 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
612 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2007

GAZ026-092300-
FRANKLIN-
612 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH 715 PM
EDT...

AT 610 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARNESVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAVONIA AND
  CARNESVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2007

SCZ006-007-092330-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
645 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND CENTRAL
SPARTANBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 639 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TAYLORS...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GSP AIRPORT BY 655 PM EDT.
  GREER BY 710 PM EDT.
  5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ROBINSON BY 720 PM EDT.
  5 MILES WEST OF DUNCAN BY 730 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. OTHER
STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO OVER DOWNTOWN SPARTANBURG AND NEAR THE
DONALDSON CENTER. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO DRIFTING NORTHEAST.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY

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