Severe Thunderstorm Warning 254, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
304 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON
SATURDAY...THEN STALL OUT. THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. ON MONDAY A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND BRING DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER AIR TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ALLOWS
WARM SOUTHERLY AIR BACK TO THE CAROLINA REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR
THE I-77 CORRIDOR. LAPS ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS 1500-2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE CWA...A FEW POCKETS OF 2500 OR GREATER REMAIN IN THE CLT
METRO AND THE NC FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. DCAPE TRENDS FROM 300-400
J/KG ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TO 600-800 J/KG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONGER MID STORM WIND FIELDS THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS LONGER
LIVED CLUSTERS...POSSIBLY LASTING TO MIDNIGHT OR LATER EAST OF THE
MTNS. SEVERE EVENT TOTALS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

LITTLE CHANGED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. I WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS INTO LATE THIS EVENING...DROP TO CHC OVERNIGHT...AND
INCREASE SAT AFTERNOON TO HIGH CHC TO LIKELY EAST. CONDITIONS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY TO SAT AFTERNOON. SPC DY2 KEEPS THE SLGT RISK
BASICALLY FOR THE CWA EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS DOESN/T BRING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH AS QUICKLY AS THE
NAM SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH IMPLY THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR
OUT OF THE NC ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE
SC AND GA ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WHILE THERE IS A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL CONNECTION BETWEEN THE SRN
PLAINS UPPER LOW AND THE SRN MID ATLANTIC STATES ATTM...WHICH SHOWS
UP WELL ON THE WATER VAPOR AND CAN BE IMPLIED BY HIGH MODEL LAYER RH
VALUES IN THIS AREA...THE MOIST CONNECTION LOOKS TO WEAKEN SOME BY
SUNDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO HANG UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SO
WHILE THE DEEP LAYER RH MAY NOT BE A HIGH...THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE TREND THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS BEEN TO BE SLOWER WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...SO WHILE I HAVE
A DRY FORECAST ON MONDAY...IT IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LINGERING
SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD INITIATE CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DEAMPLIFY THE ERN CONUS LONG WAVE
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...THEN REDEVELOP A STRONG TROF
WED-FRI. TUE LOOKS DRY WITH ISOLATED STORMS RETURNING TO THE
MOUNTAINS WED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST. A STRONG
FRONT SHOULD DROP TOWARD THE AREA THU/FRI. THE 12 UTC GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE EC IMPLYING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON THU
WITH A FROPA THEREAFTER...WHILE THE EC KEEP PCPN IN BOTH THU AND
FRI. THE LATTER IS WHAT HPC HAS DONE AND I/VE FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS TAF
PACKAGE. SHRA AND TSRA HAVE INITIATED WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT AS YESTERDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN NEAR KHKY
AND KAVL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD CREEP EAST...BRING
THE CHC TO KCLT AND KGSP/GMU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL
FORECAST VCTS FOR THE TERMINALS AND WILL INCLUDE A EARLY TEMPO FOR
KHKY.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN FOR THE AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCED RAINFALL. I WILL HIGHLIGHT KAVL AND KHKY FOR FOG LATE
TONIGHT. TIMING OF THE FOG WILL BE BASED ON OBS OF LAST NIGHT AND
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. IT APPEARS THAT KAVL COULD SEE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS AFTER 9Z...KHKY SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. FOG WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND 13Z.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-
068>070-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-301800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND ONCE AGAIN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY AND CONTINUE BUILDING
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LEADING TO AN
INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ036-037-057-071-072-082-301800-
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND ONCE AGAIN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY AND CONTINUE BUILDING
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LEADING TO AN
INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
109 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

NCZ501-502-504-291815-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
109 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BURKE AND SOUTHERN
CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 104 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLLETTSVILLE...OR 11 MILES
NORTH OF MORGANTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RUTHERFORD
  COLLEGE...LAKE RHODHISS...VALDESE...SAWMILLS...LENOIR...HUDSON...
  GAMEWELL...DREXEL...COLLETTSVILLE AND CAJAHS MOUNTAIN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

SGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
124 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOILING SPRINGS SC      35.04N 81.98W
06/28/2007                   SPARTANBURG        SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SCATTERED LARGE TREES DOWN NEAR CHESNEY...BOILING
            SPRINGS...AND LANDRUM.

&&

SLACORTE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

NCZ036-291900-
IREDELL-
206 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTY THROUGH
300 PM EDT...

AT 159 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF STONY POINT...OR 10 MILES
EAST OF TAYLORSVILLE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  TURNERSBURG...SCOTTS AND HARMONY.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

DICARLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

NCZ505-506-291945-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
243 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 241 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OLD FORT...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MARION...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATION...

OLD FORT...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

NCZ037-057-292000-
DAVIE-ROWAN-
301 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ROWAN AND SOUTHERN
DAVIE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COOLEEMEE...OR 8 MILES SOUTH
OF MOCKSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WOODLEAF...
  SPENCER...SALISBURY...MOCKSVILLE...FORK CHURCH...COOLEEMEE AND
  CLEVELAND.

DICARLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
304 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

NCZ068-069-292000-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
304 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CLEVELAND AND
WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 302 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF VALE...OR 13 MILES WEST OF
LINCOLNTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN CLEVELAND AND WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING LOCATION...

VALE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

MOORE