Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY A DRY AND MILD AIRMASS SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAPS CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SEVERAL POCKETS OF 3000 J/KG EXIST
ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE DRIFTING
SLOW EAST...SUPPORTED ONLY BY WEAK SHEAR. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY COVERAGE OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN I
WILL KEEP POPS CHC POPS ACROSS THE NC ZONE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SPC HAS
PLACED MOST OF WESTERN NC WITHIN A SLGT RISK THIS AFTERNOON...ALSO A
SVR WATCH LIES JUST NORTH OF CWA. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AND DCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...SEVERAL STORMS MAY YIELD DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RECENT MTN RAINFALL AND CLOSE X-OVER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD YIELD MTN VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE CWA TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD CAPES
OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND BROAD LIFT WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE NC ZONES. FORECAST PROFILES ARE VERY SIMILAR
TODAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SEVERAL SVR TSRA. SPC PLACES THE SLGT
RISK AREA JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER RH WILL INCREASE FRI NGHT AND SAT AS PIECES OF ENERGY
EJECT FROM THE PERSISTENT SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW AND WORK ACROSS THE
FA AHEAD OF A DEEPENING ERN CONUS LONG WAVE. MAV POPS ARE IN THE 50
PERCENT RANGE SAT...ABOUT AS HIGH AS I/VE SEEN OF LATE. WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT IN THE VCNTY AND A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR (ALTHOUGH STILL
WEAK)...I/VE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS SAT AFTN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE
THE N AND W FRINGES OF THE FA WHERE A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN
TO WORK IN BY LATE IN THE DAY. SEVERE THREAT DOESN/T LOOK HIGH WITH
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...BUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CAN/T BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT FORM JUST BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT...ALONG THE LEE SLOPES WHERE CONVECTION COULD BECOME
STATIONARY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SAT NIGHT. A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON/T HAVE
ANY CAPE AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY...COMPARATIVELY PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EVERYTHING LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED AS THE PERIOD BEGINS
WITH THE COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE FA. MID LEVEL
TEMPS WARM THROUGH TUES...SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. I DO
BRING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS SWRLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP. HIGHEST POPS ARE ADVERTISED THURS
EVENING THROUGH FRI MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE
PERIOD. COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE MON...WITH TEMPS
INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING. THE BULK
OF THE SHRA/TSRA SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND THE I-40
CORRIDOR. I WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR KAVL AND KHKY WITH TEMPOS FROM
18-20Z. VALLEY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
CURRENT RAINFALL IN THE VALLEY AND X-OVER TEMPS...LIFR FOG LOOKS
LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AT KAVL. THE FORECASTED RAINFALL AT KHKY SHOULD
ALSO SUPPORT MVFR BR AT KHKY TONIGHT. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 13Z TOMORROW MORNING. TSRA SHOULD REDEVELOP AGAIN EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...I WILL INCLUDE A VCTS AT KHKY AT 17Z.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION SAT AND SUN...PROMOTING SHRA AND TSRA EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SUN. MTN
VALLEY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCAVOY
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
549 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-291000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
549 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA. STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER...WITH
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
HAIL AS LARGE AS PENNIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. AS THE
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

HG

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