Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1054 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN
SOME ON MONDAY AND DRIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE FORECAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR TODAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POP FIELD
TO LOWER SOME ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMONT OF SC WHICH IS FARTHEST AWAY
FROM ANY FORCING MECHANISMS TODAY. BEST FORCING WILL RESULT FROM A
SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL TRAVERSE EASTERN SECTIONS MY MID AFTERNOON.
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ALREADY HAS FIRED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN UPSTATE IN RESPONSE TO DPVA FROM THIS. VERTICAL WIND FIELDS
HAVE INCREASED SOME OVER THE LAST 24 HRS WHICH WOULD FAVOR MAYBE
A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT....BUT THE TIMING OF THE SHORT
WAVE SHOULD MEAN THAT THE BEST DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE EAST
AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
12Z NAM STILL POOLS SOME HIGH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000J ACROSS THE
UPSTATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING. 06Z GFS
NOT EVEN IN THE SAME BALLPARK WITH CAPES <500J. NAM IS PROBABLY
OVERDOING THE LEE TROUGHING...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DEEP
CONVECTION. A COMPROMISE TRANSLATES ESSENTIALLY INTO THE CURRENT
FORECAST WHICH ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING
BY SUNSET. MAX TEMPERATURE FIELD LOOKS GOOD. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO WIND GRID BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z NAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT AND AT SURFACE AND IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER E STATES SUN INTO MON. SW FLOW WILL HELP WARMING TREND
CONTINUE SUN-MON WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...80S MTNS.
GFS AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN FROM THE
W MON AFTN SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MTNS MON AFTN
AND EARLY EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVG E MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE W. AS SYSTEM APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW INCREASES AND GULF MOISTURE SURGES NE OVER AREA FOR INCREASED
DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WITH CONTINUED S FLOW...
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WERE RATHER WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
PICTURES INDICATE CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT FROM KAVL...SOUTH TO
KAND. EXPECT KGSP/KGMU TO SCATTER AND THEN DEVELOP LOW VFR CUMULUS
BY 18Z. KCLT/KHKY WILL AGAIN BE LAST TO GO VFR...BUT CLIMO FAVORS
A LOW VFR CEILING THOSE PLACES AS WELL BY 18Z. THUNDER CHANCE OVER
A TERMINAL WILL BE AROUND 30% AFTER 18Z...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
JUST A CB REMARK AT ALL AIRPORTS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTIVE STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WED. SOME EARLY MORNING MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-170745-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
334 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
TODAY. A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AFTER A BREAK SUNDAY...ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1246 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

NCZ065-509-161745-
HENDERSON-POLK MOUNTAINS-
1246 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN HENDERSON AND WESTERN
POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 1243 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING 6 MILES EAST OF FLAT ROCK...OR 7
MILES EAST OF HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FLAT
  ROCK...HENDERSONVILLE...EAST FLAT ROCK AND DANA.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO OCCURR WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

NCZ065-161830-
HENDERSON-
135 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY THROUGH
230 PM EDT...

AT 132 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF FLAT ROCK...OR 4 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FLAT
ROCK...MOUNTAIN HOME...EAST FLAT ROCK.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

NCZ508-510-161845-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
145 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND
   EASTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 142 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF LAKE ADGER...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  RUTHERFORDTON AND MILL SPRING.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RUTHERFORDTON           35.36N 81.96W
06/16/2007                   RUTHERFORD         NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

PTANNER