Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO HELP BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS MOISUTRE  WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT THIS WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL BRING BACK WARMER...DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FIRST CONVECTION FORMED ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE MORNING CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF NC AND THE FULL SUN AREA
OVER SC. NE GA/UPSTATE AND SRN PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY AND DCAPES ARE
HIGHEST. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
REST OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE EARLIER CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP AND
HEATING IS BEGINNING. AS NOTED EARLIER...SHEAR MUCH WEAKER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO ONLY ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE ALONG ANY SFC COOL POOLS
THAT CAN HOLD TOGETHER. CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS WELL
PLACED GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS. HAVE LIKELY POP MOST OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT SCT
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE LATE EVENING AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE EASTERN TROF THU AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING FOR CONVECTION. MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...WITH A RETURN OF INCREASING
SHEAR AS THE H5 GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE DEEPENING SHORT WAVE.
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF NUMEROUS CONVECTION WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND LOWER THICKNESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT VORT MAXES WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH AROUND A LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW TRIES TO CLOSE OFF
OVER VA. A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY...BUT GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA (ESP OVR UPSTATE SC). THERE WILL BE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF LIFT WITH A POTENT UPPER LOW OVER
THE AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
UPSTATE SC AND NORTHEASTERN GA. IN FACT...SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THESE
AREAS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3. A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING
ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING. SO HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS AFTER
SUNSET...BUT INSTABILITY WILL WANE RAPIDLY SO HAVE JUST SHOWERS IN
FCST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED A FEW MORE DEGS F ACROSS MAINLY THE NC ZONES
AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS FCST TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN. LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS MOST OF THE AREA REACHING ONLY THE LOWER 70S (M-U70S OVER
SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GA).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKS
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE OVER QUEBEC. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW THEN BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY...AND TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS A LEE TROUGH SETS UP IN THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDSAY...AND IS NOW PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE CWFA LATE WEDNESDAY. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE HAS 30-40% CHC
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED GRIDS THAT WAY FOR NOW. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. TSRA HAVE ALREADY AFFECTED KGSP/KGMU AND ARE CLOSE TO
KCLT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS ALL SITES AND WILL AMEND AS CELLS APPROACH
AIRFIELDS. EXPECT MVFR HAZE TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AT KAVL.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD FOG NIGHT
TONIGHT. HAVE MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS WITH IFR OVERNIGHT AT KAVL. IN
ACCORDANCE WITH GUIDELINES...HAVE KEPT VLIFR OUT OF KAVL ATTM...BUT
EXPECT THEM TO BECOME SOCKED IN AROUND 09Z. EXPECT VFR BY AROUND 13Z
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...BUT MVFR WILL LIKELY LINGER AGAIN MOST OF THE
MORNING AT KAVL. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE TAFS ATTM...BUT
EXPECT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE AT LEAST VCTS ONCE AGAIN AS LIKELY
POPS ARE IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST MOST LOCATIONS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO FUEL SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY. RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES WITH
ATTENDANT STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LOWERED LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN STRATUS AND FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-507>510-
SCZ001>014-019-141845-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
242 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 393 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>506-141845-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
242 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS
YESTERDAY...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXITS FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OF
60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
133 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             10 ESE PICKENS          34.83N 82.55W
06/12/2007  E0.75 INCH       PICKENS            SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
406 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

NCZ082-132045-
UNION-
406 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT UNION COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM
EDT...

AT 402 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MONROE...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MINERAL SPRINGS BY 445 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

GERAPETRITIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
422 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             CULLOWHEE               35.31N 83.18W
06/12/2007  E0.75 INCH       JACKSON            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED MARBLE TO 3/4 INCH DIAMETER HAIL LASTING
            ABOUT 10 MINUTES

&&

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

SCZ011-132115-
ABBEVILLE-
423 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ABBEVILLE COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM
EDT...

AT 423 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DUE WEST...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF ABBEVILLE...
MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ANTREVILLE BY 445 PM EDT.
  LAKE SECESSION BY 455 PM EDT.
  LOWNDESVILLE BY 510 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

GERAPETRITIS

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