Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
857 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
A PHASED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF HTE
NATIONS TONIGHT. WEAK RAIN INDUCED COLD AIR DAMMING IS IN PLACE
OVER THE FOOTHILLS...WHILE THE WARM FRONT MOVING S MOVING
NORTHACORSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. UPSTREAM...THE COLD FRONT IS
NOW IN EAST TENNESSEE AND NORTH GEORGIA. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL 3 AM EST FOR THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES OF GA...SC...AND
THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...AND EXTENDS INTO THE SC FOOTHILLS
AROUND THE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG METRO AREA. DAMAGING WIND AND
TORNADOES ARE THE THREAT TONIGHT....AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS
AND MARKED VEERING WITH HEIGHT ARE YIELDING ELEVATED HELICITIES.

THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS HEAVY RAIN HAS PRECEDED
THE FRONT IN UPGLIDE...AND NOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL ADD THEIR
DELUGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED USING THE LATEST HPC
GUIDANCE...WHICH STILL PLACES OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL GET GUSTY TOWRAD MORNING...BUT WILL BE BELOW LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A BIT COOL IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND THE
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR AT 00Z...AND ADJUSTEMENTS WILL BE MADE TO
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 246 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED PRECIP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT STILL
ONGOING OVER THE CWFA. SURFACE OBS SHOW THE WARM FRONT IS ON THE
MOVE NORTH. QUESTION STILL REMAINS IF THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH THE SCENARIO THAT IT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AT LEAST THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. STILL
EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIP AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
MOVES NORTH...EVEN IF THE COOL POOL BLOCKS THE NORTHWARD FRONTAL
MOVEMENT. THAT SAID...POPS REMAIN IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. USED 09Z SREF TO TIME THE COLD FRONTAL MOVEMENT...AND
RESULTING DIMINISHING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

09Z SREF BRINGS MEAN CAPE AROUND 100 J/KG INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...50 KT
LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGH HELICITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS. ISOLATED
BRIEF COOL SEASON TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL SINCE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE HANGING AROUND. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW ABOVE 4000 FT
BEFORE ENDING. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NON DIURNAL AND MILD. EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE COLD AIR COMES CRASHING
IN TOWARD MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE STEADILY EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND WESTERN
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY NOON. H85 CAA
WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY...COOLING TEMPERATURES BY
2-4 C DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND
MET...BUT I WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE FROM AN CLIPPER
REACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NC MTNS. H5 TROF AND INCREASING
NW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...WITH A SOLID CHC ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND FAVORED INTERIOR MTNS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY AND ENDING DURING THE EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW OPTIMAL ICE CRYSTALS TEMPERATURES
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MOISTURE REGION BY SEVERAL KFT. DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH AREA AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
EVENT...I WILL FORECAST SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN
MTNS...WITH AROUND AN INCH ALONG THE TN LINE. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR FROM 14-21Z ON TUES.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE TUE NIGHT AND WED. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...TN BORDER SNOW PACK...AND FRESH COOL AIR MASS WILL
LEAD TO COOLEST NIGHT WITHIN THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST. USING MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...WED MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS ON THE
MTNS TOPS TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S EAST OF THE MTNS. HIGH TEMPS ON
WED SHOULD REACH SEASONABLE VALUES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN IMPRESSIVE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A SHARP TROF REMAINS OVER THE SW
CONUS. AS A RESULT...THE SFC PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE FROM DAY
TO DAY. HPC AND GFS GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO THE
NE OVER THE ATLANTIC...TO THE WEST...A SLOW MOVING COLD OR
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW OVER THE LOWER
APPALACHIAN REGION. THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES 10
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. I WILL FOLLOW HPC
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURS AND FRI I WILL
MODIFY TEMPS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE AVG. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE POPS AROUND 10-20 PERCENT...I WILL PAINT A
CHC FOR SHRA OVER THE MTNS SAT AND SUN.

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH INTO THE EVENING. VSBYS COULD
SHOW A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BETWEEN THE TIME THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN...BUT CIGS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IFR. IFR EXPECTED UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR UNTIL WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE IN SPEED
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PULLS OUT. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT
VFR MONDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT KAVL WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UP VALLEY FLOW. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE EVENING
EVERYWHERE XCPT KAVL. LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER TO OCCUR. GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED
MONDAY MORNING.

HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINS THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FLOODING WILL BE WHERE CONVECTION CAN
DROP A LOT OF PRECIP QUICKLY ONTO THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ033>035-048>055-058-059-062>067-501>510
     UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001>003 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1113 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-081000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1113 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...INCLUDING MOST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. PLEASE
SEE CAEFFAGSP FOR DETAILS.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES...
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK...CAESPSGSP...FOR DETAILS.

SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007

NCZ051-058-080000-
GRAHAM-SWAIN-
515 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GRAHAM AND SWAIN COUNTIES THROUGH
700 PM EST...

AT 515 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MARYVILLE TO 15
MILES WEST OF TAPOCO TO 30 MILES WEST OF MURPHY...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  TAPOCO BY 535 PM EST.
  FONTANA VILLAGE BY 545 PM EST.
  SANTEETLAH LAKE BY 550 PM EST.
  FONTANA LAKE BY 555 PM EST.
  ROBBINSVILLE BY 600 PM EST.
  STECOAH BY 605 PM EST.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVY RAIN COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY
FLOODED ROADWAYS. USE CAUTION NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS AS WELL.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
630 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007

GAZ010-017-080200-
HABERSHAM-RABUN-
630 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 10 PM...

AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. RADAR
INDICATES RAINFALL RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH PER HOUR...AND THESE
RATES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM CLARKESVILLE NORTHWARD TO CLAYTON
AND DILLARD.

DEEP PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL DEVELOP...AND MANY
STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL LIKELY APPROACH BANKFULL. ISOLATED FLOODING
COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE NORMALLY POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

IF THESE RAINFALL RATES CONTINUE AS EXPECTED...FLOOD ADVISORIES OR
FLOOD WARNINGS COULD BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET...FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE FLOODING DUE TO THE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
819 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007

GAZ026-028-029-080315-
ELBERT-FRANKLIN-HART-
825 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ELBERT...FRANKLIN AND HART
COUNTIES THIS EVENING...

A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA PIEDMONT BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM THIS EVENING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN AT THE RATE OF 1/2 INCH PER HOUR OR BETTER.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS COMPRISE THE NORTHERN END OF A LINE THAT MOVED
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLIER THIS EVENING. THIS LINE HAS HAD A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THOSE IN THE CARNESVILLE TO ELBERTON AREA WILL NEED TO PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET...IN CASE ANY WATCHES
OR WARNING ARE ISSUED.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
851 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007

SCZ006-007-010>012-019-080400-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENWOOD-LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-
851 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT MUCH OF UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING...

A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE INTERSTATE 85
CORRIDOR FROM ANDERSON TO SPARTANBURG THROUGH 10 PM...WITH LOCAL
RAINFALL RATES OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS. WINDS MAY ALSO GUST TO 40 MPH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LINE. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY STRETCH FROM
ABBEVILLE TO LAURENS BY 11 PM...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING LIKELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A TORNADO TO DEVELOP QUICKLY IN ANY AREA ALONG THIS
LINE. IT IS ESSENTIAL TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION IN CASE WARNINGS ARE NEEDED.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
930 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007

GAZ029-SCZ011-080330-
ABBEVILLE-ELBERT-
930 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ABBEVILLE AND ELBERT COUNTIES
THROUGH 1030 PM EST...

AT 930 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COMER TO 8 MILES
SOUTH OF CRAWFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BOWMAN BY 935 PM EST.
  ELBERTON BY 950 PM EST.
  RUCKERSVILLE BY 955 PM EST.
  FORTSONIA BY 1000 PM EST.
  LAKE RUSSELL BY 1005 PM EST.
  LOWNDESVILLE BY 1010 PM EST.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ABBEVILLE AND ELBERT COUNTIES ALSO REMAIN IN A
TORNADO WATCH THIS EVENING...AND A TORNADO COULD SPIN UP VERY
QUICKLY ALONG THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS ESSENTIAL THAT YOU
KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES IN CASE A WARNING BECOMES
NECESSARY.

HG