Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 241552
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1052 AM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-250000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-070225T0000Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
1052 AM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID-AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. LAND
MANAGEMENT AGENCIES REPORT VERY LOW FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SPREAD OF
WILDFIRE THIS AFTERNOON. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY ABOVE 25 PERCENT
EARLY THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF RAPID SPREAD OF 
WILDFIRE.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$
LANE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 AM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER FAIR DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WE
ARE EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SCT ALTOCU BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NEVERTHELESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES WITH A EAST WIND AT OR LESS THAN 10 KTS. WE MAY
EVEN SEE PERIODS OF SUN HALOS OR PARHELIA THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON/S FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW OVER THE
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A
STRONG LLVL JET AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. H85 WINDS BEGIN TO
SHARPLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE MTNS BETWEEN 3-6Z TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN OVERNIGHT. MTN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG WAA
PATTERN AFTER 6Z. THIS SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WARM AIR OVER THE MTNS TO
REMOVE ANY CONCERNS FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
NAM SOUNDING AT KTNB INDICATES A PERIOD OF FZRA LATE NIGHT. THIS
SOLUTION IS NOT FAVORED AND I WILL USE A BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE...SUPPORTING A LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE MID 30S. AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES...MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE CWA
AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHRA BY 12Z OVER THE
MTNS. I WILL FORECAST LIKELY COVERAGE EAST OF THE MTNS AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES. TS CHCS WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND
THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AS CAPES POOL OVER A 100 J/KG.

WINDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY OVER THE NC
MTNS...ESPECIALLY AREAS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN ELEVATION. THE WAA
PATTERN KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS ABOVE H850. IN FACT...MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATES WIND SPEEDS AT 12Z SUN RANGING FROM CALM TO 6 KTS AT TNB.
THIS APPEARS TOO LOW...FAVORING THE MESOSCALE MODEL WINDS. WIND
ADVISORY SPEEDS COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS ABOVE 3500 FEET...WE
WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.

SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SO USED 21Z SREF FOR
PRECIP TIMING. SINCE GFS A LITTLE FASTER...INSTABILITY HAS LESS
TIME TO DEVELOP BEFORE LINE IS THROUGH THE AREA. THE SREF IS
SLOWER...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS SLOW AS THE NAM. THE SREF SHOWS
INSTABILITY WEAKENING IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CWFA AS THE LINE REACHES THAT AREA AFTER NOON. HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC THUNDER WEST IN THE MORNING AND EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL SHOW TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMING ALONG A
THERMAL MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWFA BORDER THEN
MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST. SHEAR BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT VALUES QUITE HIGH AS 50 KT H85 JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA. IF INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AND TAP THAT SHEAR...THE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD INCREASE AS
WELL. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY WITH THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES.

FRONTAL BASED PRECIP ENDS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LOW MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS. NOT A GREAT
NORTHWEST FLOW SITUATION AS WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT. SREF DOES SHOW A PERIOD OF CHC POP RIGHT ALONG THE TN
BORDER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE DRIES UP MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS/THICKNESSES COLD ENOUGH FOR ELEVATION DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW MIX.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPS...ACCUMULATING SNOW NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE STRONG SUNDAY. HOWEVER
TYPICALLY DO NOT RECEIVE WIDESPREAD WIND PROBLEMS WITH WARM
ADVECTION FLOW. RIGHT NOW...STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE AT RIDGE TOP
LEVEL OVER SOUTHWEST NC...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A WIND ADVISORY AS
THE EVENT NEARS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WINDY TO BREEZY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WILL BE A BROAD RANGE IN HIGHS SUNDAY WITH TMB AND IN SITU TYPE
DAMMING OVER THE AREA. GOOD NEWS IS SREF PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS OVER THE NRN BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LIKELY P-TYPE RAIN. BROAD TEMP RANGE CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES GIVES WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY. CHC POP SPREADS INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW ALL TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY...EXCEPT KAVL WITH A SOUTH WIND...SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KTS. THIS AFTERNOON...FEW TO SCT CIRRUS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW MID CLOUDS
LOWERING AS LLVL WINDS BRING DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. MVFR
TO IFR CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS SHRA AND POSSIBLY TS
MOVE INTO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DWPTS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THIS AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS
BRING ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA.
HOWEVER...AFTER ACHIEVING EXTREMELY LOW RH/S YESTERDAY...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NEED SOME TIME TO SEE RH/S CLIMB ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DWPTS TODAY
INDICATE THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DRY DAY...WITH RH/S RANGING FROM
15 PERCENT TO THE NE TO MID 20S OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.
WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS TODAY. BASED ON
COORDINATION CALLS MADE YESTERDAY AND THE FORECAST LOW RH/S...WE
WILL UPGRADE THE RED FLAG WATCH TO A WARNING FOR EXTREME NE GA.
ELSEWHERE...HEADLINES WILL BE USED TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOW MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.

NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED/RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...NED
FIRE WEATHER...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
710 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2007

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-250015-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
710 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-250015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
710 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RFWGSP ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.