Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 231555
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1055 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2007

...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...

.THE COMBINATION OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

NCZ033-049-050-240000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070224T0000Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
1055 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY...
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WAS ALREADY IN THE 20 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF 11 AM. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE 
AFTERNOON. LAND MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORT VERY LOW FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY DUE
TO THE VERY DRY AIRMASS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$
LANE

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 232002
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
302 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2007

NCZ033-049-050-240000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070224T0000Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
302 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID 
EVENING. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-240400-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FW.A.0002.070224T1400Z-070225T0000Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
302 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 25 PERCENT ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LAND
MANAGEMENT AGENCIES REPORT VERY LOW FUEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$
LANE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2007

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS ACROSS THE MTN AND FOOTHILLS WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD...RESULTING IN SEVERAL WIND RELATED
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES TODAY. THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING AND
WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM. WE
WILL ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FOR THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND BLUE RIDGE UNTIL NOON...AND THE NORTHERN MTNS FROM 6 AM
UNTIL 7 PM. WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS...WE WILL UPGRADE THE RED
FLAG WATCH TO A WARNING...SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH STRONG WINDS BELOW 5 KFT THIS MORNING. BETWEEN 15Z TO
18Z...THE NAM12 INDICATES THAT ONLY 2-4 MBS OF CHANGE WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE NC MTNS...LEAVING JUST THE NRN MTNS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE CWA WILL SEE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES. I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE...ADJUSTING TOWARD THE LATEST FLP.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER. SKY COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS. H85
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM 3-4 DEGREES C TONIGHT. WE EXPECT MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES FROM MTN VALLEYS TO MTN TOPS...MOS
CONSENSUS RESULTS IN A LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MOVES EAST AS DEEP UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE AREA SLIDES SLOWLY
EAST SATURDAY AS OCCLUDED LOW MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NAM A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. HAVE GONE WITH PRECIP TIMING CLOSER TO THE 21Z
SREF MEAN. THIS MEANS LITTLE PRECIP BEFORE MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN CAT POP WEST TO CHC POP EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH CAT POP ALL AREAS...THEN
LIKELY EAST TO SLIGHT CHC WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE QUITE COOL OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS/BLUE
RIDGE. ALTHOUGH SOME SREF MEMBERS HAVE LOWS BELOW FREEZING...MEAN
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. ALSO BOTH PRECIP
ALGORITHMS SHOW RAIN TO BE THE LIKELY P-TYPE.

NEXT CONCERN IS POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY. SQUALL LINE
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER WEST OF HERE. EVEN WITH SLOWER TIMING...THE LINE WOULD BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SOME VERY
LOW CAPE WITH LI/S ABOVE ZERO. SREF PROBABILITY SHOWS 30 PERCENT CHC
OF CAPE 100 OR HIGHER OVER THE SOUTH...BUT 10 PERCENT OR LESS OF
CAPE 250 OR HIGHER...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF NEGATIVE LI. OF
COURSE...SHEAR WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH 50KT H85 JET MOVING OVER.
NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMING AND
MOVING ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE NOW LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NUMBERS DUE TO
NON-CLASSICAL DAMMING. ALL THIS MEANS THAT CHC OF SEVERE STORMS IS
LOW BUT NOT NON-EXISTENT. WILL WATCH AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR TO SEE
IF ONGOING SQUALL LINE CAN TAP ANY AVAILABLE ENERGY OR SHEAR.

MOISTURE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE STACKED LOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z GFS LOOKS MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS HPC PROGS AND GOING FORECAST FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL UPPER FLOW INITIALLY OVER THE AREA...BUT AS DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST AN EASTERN RIDGE SHOULD RESULT BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE...EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
STATES ON WED. THUS...A DRY PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE FIRST PORTION
OF THE NEW WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY LATE WED AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THU. MADE
SOME CHANGES TO TEMPS EARLY TO BLEND NEW GUIDANCE AND SHORT RANGE
FORECAST WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z-06Z/...
WIND SPEED TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HRS. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...THEN VEERING TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. KAVL WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN QUITE GUSTY THIS MORNING...WITH
SPEEDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EAST OF
THE MTNS...PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN SUNRISE AND
NOON...HOWEVER...LEE TROF SHOULD RESULT IN PREDOMINATE NORTHWEST WIND
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE NON-MTN TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND NEAR 10 KTS. ONLY PERIODS OF
FEW TO SCT CIRRUS EXPECT THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO FOG EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATEST SFC OBS INDICATE THAT DWPTS ACROSS THE CWA ARE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF 10F. THE LOW DWPTS AND FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES
HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN A FEW POCKETS OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT RH.
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADILY WARM WITH
STRONG INSOLATION...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND MILD LLVL THICKNESSES.
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DWPTS SHOULD ONLY FLUCTUATE BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 14-19 PERCENT RANGE. NON MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD SEE THE WINDS
WEAKEN TO AROUND 10 MPH LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN
MTNS SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND CRITICAL RH
VALUES. WE WILL UPGRADE THE RED FLAG WATCH TO A WARNING BASED ON
THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND COORDINATION CALLS MADE TO USER
AGENCIES YESTERDAY. EARLY THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND RH VALUES SHOULD STEADILY CLIMB OUT OF CRITICAL
VALUES.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ010-017.

NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ035>037-051-056>058-062-508-510.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048-053-065-501-
     503-505-507-509.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ048-052-
     053-059-063>065-502-504-506-507-509.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
     049-050-501-503-505.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR NCZ033-049-050.

SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>003.

&&

SHORT TERM...NED/RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...NED
FIRE WEATHER...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
953 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-240300-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
953 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST URGENT WEATHER
MESSAGE...NPWGSP...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NCZ048-052-053-059-063>065-507-509-240300-
MADISON-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
953 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE...NPWGSP...ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GAZ010-017-NCZ035>037-051-056>058-062-502-504-506-508-510-
SCZ001>003-240300-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-SWAIN-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
GRAHAM-MACON-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
953 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST URGENT WEATHER
MESSAGE...NPWGSP...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-240300-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
953 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.