Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Yancey County, NC

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 221820 CCA
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE NC FOOTHILLS 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1225 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

.VERY GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS...UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS...AND LOW FUEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-230000-
/O.COR.KGSP.FW.W.0003.070222T1725Z-070223T0000Z/
ALEXANDER-AVERY-BUNCOMBE-BURKE MOUNTAINS-CABARRUS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
CATAWBA-CLEVELAND-DAVIE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-EASTERN POLK-GASTON-GRAHAM-
GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-
IREDELL-LINCOLN-MACON-MADISON-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MECKLENBURG-
MITCHELL-NORTHERN JACKSON-POLK MOUNTAINS-ROWAN-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-SWAIN-TRANSYLVANIA-UNION-YANCEY-
1225 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WAS ALREADY APPROACHING THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 25
PERCENT AS OF 1 PM. LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES REPORT DRY FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DRY OUT RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE VERY WINDY...DRY...AND
ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$
LANE

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 222024
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

.VERY GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS...UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS...AND LOW
FUEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

NCZ501>510-230000-
/O.EXA.KGSP.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070223T0000Z/
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
324 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WAS RANGING FROM 15 T0 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES REPORT DRY FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DRY OUT RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE VERY WINDY...DRY...AND
ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN
TO RECOVER THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

NCZ033-049-050-230000-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FW.A.0001.070223T1400Z-070224T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070223T0000Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
324 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING.

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF LESS THAN 25
PERCENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LAND
MANAGEMENT AGENCIES REPORT DRY FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE VERY WINDY...DRY...AND ABNORMALLY WARM
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW...WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO ADVERSE
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS
SHOULD BE AT CRITICALLY LOW LEVELS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-230000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070223T0000Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
324 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES
REPORT DRY FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...AND THESE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE VERY
WINDY...DRY...AND ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS. THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$
LANE

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 222329
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
629 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...

.LINGERING VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS
AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE EVENING.

NCZ033-049-050-230300-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070223T0300Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.A.0001.070223T1400Z-070224T0000Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
629 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 

THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 25 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH MID-EVENING. LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES REPORT DRY FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW...WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO ADVERSE
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS
SHOULD BE AT CRITICALLY LOW LEVELS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-230300-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070223T0300Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
629 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 25 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH MID-EVENING. LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES REPORT DRY FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 230241
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
941 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY...

.DESPITE LINGERING GUSTY WINDS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO CREEP ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF
CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. 

NCZ033-049-050-231100-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070223T0300Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.A.0001.070223T1400Z-070224T0000Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
941 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM EST FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. 

WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 MPH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB AS WELL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW...WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO ADVERSE
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS
SHOULD BE AT CRITICALLY LOW LEVELS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-230345-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070223T0300Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
941 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 MPH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH DIMINISHING WIND ELSEWHERE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB AS WELL.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
950 AM EST THU FEB 22 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF ACROSS THE AREA...SO
THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS FOR THIS UPDATE WILL BE TO REMOVE FOG
WORDING FROM THE FORECAST SUITE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
TODAY WILL BE WITH THE WIND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. AS
USUAL...THERE ARE PLENTY OF ARGUMENTS FOR AND AGAINST A WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND EVENT. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN H8 JET OF 50 TO 55 KTS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE
TN AND OH VALLEYS WILL RACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE MTNS THIS PM AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 50 TO 55
KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THIS MIXED LAYER. WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL EVENTS
THIS SEASON IN WHICH A DEEP MIXED LAYER...COMBINED WITH DECENT COLD
ADVECTION AND 50+ KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER RESULTED IN
WINDS BARELY EVEN REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. MEANWHILE...THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS PROGGED BY THE MODELS THIS AFTERNOON IS
NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG ACROSS THE MTNS...WHILE THE STRONGEST PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. WE DO NOT WANT TO START SCALING BACK THE WIND ADVISORY/HIGH
WIND WARNING ATTM...BUT CERTAINLY SEE NO REASON TO EXPAND THEM. WE
WILL LOWER THE WINDS JUST A BIT IN THE FORECAST SUITE...AND STRESS
THE GUST POTENTIAL RATHER THAN THE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE NPW.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST WILL REQUIRE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS AND COSMETIC
CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT RH OF LESS THAN 30
PERCENT WILL BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IN FACT...MANY AREAS COULD SEE RH OF
AROUND 25 PERCENT BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NO PLANS TO UPDATE
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST ATTM...BUT WILL FRESHEN UP THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 238 AM EST THU FEB 22 2007/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES TODAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS JUST
EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC LONGWAVE TROUGH TODAY...PASSING BY JUST TO OUR
NORTH...BUT ACCOMPANIED BY STRING WINDS ALOFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
DECOUPLED ACROSS PARTS OF THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...BUT MIXING SHOULD DESSICATE THE
LOWER LEVELS AND TRANSPORT GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THE NAM IS
QUITE A BIT WINDIER THAN THE GFS...AND THE SREF MEAN WOULD LEND
SUPPORT TO THE NAM. A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR THE
NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER VALLEY
AND BALSAM MOUNTAINS...ALSO THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETS LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS EVEN WARM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY...BUT WITH SO MUCH MIXING...THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAV WILL BE AVOIDED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST FOR A BETTER FIT WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. SOME MOISTURE IS SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS...AND NO SHOWERS WILL BE CARRIED THERE.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS ON SAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO RUN
OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE PARENT STORM SYSTEM...WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. SHEAR
CONTINUES TO LOOK TREMENDOUS WITH THE SYSTEM SUNDAY...BUT
INSTABILITY HAS WAFFLED FROM RUN TO RUN. WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE
THUNDER MENTION IN THE HWO FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL ON MONDAY...BUT IT SHOULD
SEND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
TUESDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS
WAVE...WARRANTING MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. RIDGING IS THEN
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OFF THE COAST.

AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE RAPIDLY FALLING FROM MVFR TO IFR
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SITES WITH MORE WIND WILL AVOID FALLING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING THE WIND BEFORE
DAWN...BUT THE ONLY PLACE THIS IS A SAFE BET IS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY SWEPT EAST THIS MORNING AS MIXING OCCURS...
LEAVING FEW CLOUDS. WITH THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND
DOWNWARD MOTION INCREASING...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING...DECREASING SOME AFTER
DUSK EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT REMAINING UP THROUGH THE EVENING
AT KAVL.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE WIND SHOULD EASILY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA TODAY...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 25 PERCENT. COORDINATION
WITH GA AND SC OFFICIALS YESTERDAY INDICATED THAT FUEL MOISTURE
WOULD BE ELEVATED SLIGHTLY FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY. NORTH CAROLINA
FUELS ARE MORE MARGINAL...BUT THE ONLY PLACES THAT EVEN COME CLOSE
TO 25 PERCENT ARE MACON...POLK...AND ROWAN COUNTIES. A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.

NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-
     503-505.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ035>037-051-056>058-062-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
     510.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ048-052-053-059-
     063>065-507-509.

SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...LANE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
445 AM EST THU FEB 22 2007

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-231100-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
445 AM EST THU FEB 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR THE LATEST
DETAILS ON THE HIGH WINDS...PLEASE SEE THE URGENT WEATHER
MESSAGE...CAENPWGSP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ048-052-053-059-063>065-507-509-231100-
MADISON-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
445 AM EST THU FEB 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST URGENT WEATHER
MESSAGE...CAENPWGSP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY WIND REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-051-056>058-062-068>072-082-
502-504-506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-231100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-SWAIN-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-MACON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
445 AM EST THU FEB 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE WINDY
CONDITIONS...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE...CAENPWGSP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 AM EST THU FEB 22 2007

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-222300-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...
SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS
1044 AM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT...

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...WITH STRONGER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CRITICAL LEVEL OF 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
FELL ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY...THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD LOWER FUEL MOISTURE TO CRITICALLY DRY LEVELS BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

LANE