Red Flag Warning 27, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 221751
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2007

GAZ018-026-028-029-230000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0027.000000T0000Z-070623T0000Z/
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BY 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FUEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SPREAD OF FOREST FIRES
THIS AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$
MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH LATE
TODAY...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW...AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CLASSIC SUMMER PATTERN WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BERMUDA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH VIRGINIA
TODAY...WITH WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW EXPECTED EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN THE MIDWEST WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED VERY CAREFULLY TODAY...AS THE STEERING FLOW PROMISES TO
BRING ANY SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP TOWARD THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE IN THE DAY ALONG THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...WITH ONLY DEBRIS CLOUDS INCREASING FROM
THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID WARMING TO ALLOW
MAXES TO EXCEED YESTERDAY VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE DETERMINING WHETHER APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING AN MCS INTO THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWFA TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE GOOD INSTABILITY
TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND FORECAST SHEAR
PROFILES CERTAINLY APPEAR ADEQUATE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL BE A MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING...WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING
THE DEEP MIXING/DRYING OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...ANY MCS THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING OUT OF GAS AS IT ENTERS/APPROACHES
THE CWFA THIS EVENING. WE WILL MAINTAIN A TOKEN LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SURROUNDING
AREAS.

AS THE BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO THE REGION...IT BEGINS TO STALL OUT OVER
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON SAT AFTERNOON. ALSO...DEEPER MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER DESTABILIZATION ON SATURDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION...SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SAT EVENING...AS REMNANT
UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE NC ZONES.

BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS IS UNLIKELY TO NIX OUR CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...IT SHOULD END THE POSSIBILITY
OF ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE IT...AS UPPER
RIDGING BECOMES ENSCONCED OVER THE EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION PROVIDING THE ONLY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MIXING OUT OF
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TODAY SHOULD KEEP CUMULUS TO A MINIMUM...WITH THE
MAIN CONTRIBUTION TO SKY COVER BEING ENCROACHING CIRRUS FROM THE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SOME BACKING OF WINDS TO SW IN A LEE
TROUGH BY LATE DAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

OUTLOOK THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRES SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH
EARLY SAT. BRIEF EARLY MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KAVL EACH DAY...AND HAZE COULD AFFECT PIEDMONT LOCATIONS DURING THE
MORNINGS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR KAVL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD MIXING OF DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY
IS GOING TO ALLOW MIN RH VALUES TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE NON-MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF
RH IN THE 23 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE IS NOW EXPECTED FROM TOCCOA TO
ELBERTON IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND A RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE
NEEDED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-048-049-051>053-057-059-063>065-
     069>072-082.
SC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LANE
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LANE
LONG TERM...LANE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-037-050-056-058-062-068-
501>510-222200-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-DAVIE-
MITCHELL-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-MACON-CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
559 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ036-048-049-051>053-057-059-063>065-069>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-
222200-
IREDELL-MADISON-YANCEY-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-ROWAN-NORTHERN JACKSON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
559 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.