Red Flag Warning 23, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 172221
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

...VERY DRY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY...

.A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO
25 PERCENT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA FROM RABUN
COUNTY TO ELBERT COUNTY.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-181100-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0023.070518T1600Z-070519T0000Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
621 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. LAND MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS HAVE STATED THAT FUELS IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA HAVE DRIED
RAPIDLY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE
FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 181912
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
312 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2007

...VERY DRY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY...

.A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO
25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
FROM RABUN COUNTY TO ELBERT COUNTY.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-190000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-070519T0000Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
312 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
LAND MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE STATED THAT FUELS IN NORTHEAST
GEORGIA HAVE DRIED RAPIDLY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE
FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

07

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 190009
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
809 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-190115-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-070519T0000Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
809 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS RISEN INTO THE
MID 30S SO THE WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
TODAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY SATURDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL KEEP SCT CU AROUND TODAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE FULL SUN UNTIL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVES IN THIS
AFTERNOON. 12Z RUC AND QUICK LOOK AT 12Z NAM SHOW ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE DELAYED
CHC POP UNTIL THAT TIME. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL FROM ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE STORMS
WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST. OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST CONTINUES
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. OBSERVED THICKNESS SCHEME SHOWS HIGHS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO WITH QUITE A BIT OF SUN
EXPECTED HAVE RAISED FORECAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...ANY LARGER SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER VORT WILL DIMINISH AND WITH LOSS OF HTG...LAPSE RATES
WILL LOWER AS WELL. HAVE CARRIED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTHERN NC MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN VA FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER TO LIFT THIS
FEATURE INTO THE ATLANTIC...MORE LIKE THE ECMWF WHICH WAS THE HPC
PREFERRED MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A POOL OF
LOWER THICKNESS AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. SKY COVER WILL BE INCREASED
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE. ON SATURDAY EVEN THE SLOWER NAM TAKES THE MOISTURE TO THE
EAST AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA...WHILE THICKNESS BEGINS TO RISE IN THE
WAKE OF THE COOL POOL. ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE OH RIVER VALLEY FROM THE NORTH...AND BECOMES
POISED TO MOVE INTO NC FORM THE NORTH. SKY COVER WILL BE INCREASED
IN THE NORTHERN TIER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...BUT POPS WILL AGAIN
BE LEFT BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS...WITH
UPPER 30S IN INHABITED MOUNTAIN AREAS...AND ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
FROST AT MOST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONTINENT FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REPLACED BY LOWER
HEIGHTS ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO  DROP SOUTH INTO NC ON MONDAY.
THE HPC PROGS RETURN THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...
KEEPING IT IN VA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS MOISTURE FIELD WOULD
SUGGEST LEAVING IT ACROSS OUR AREA AND BANKED UP AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS...ALBEIT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY
MOVES BEFORE HALTING WILL DETERMINE WIND FLOW AND TEMPERATURES...
THOUGH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IS LACKING...
AND SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH AN EASTERLY SURFACE COMPONENT IMPLIED FOR OUR
AREA...WHILE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM
THE WEST. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE LIMITED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PACKAGE...EITHER BY A POST FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...OR
BY CLOUD COVER IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH LITTLE OR NO
WARM ADVECTION INDICATED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SCT-BKN VFR LVL
CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. VFR CIGS SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. THE CHANCE OF ANYTHING
AFFECTING KAVL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP FRI LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
KHKY DURING THIS TIME. GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...BUT LEE TROF WILL CREATE SOME TEMPORARY NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND COULD
BECOME GUSTY.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NITE. SCT TO OVC CLOUDS WILL ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE
TERMINALS. DRY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A
DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO
WIDESPREAD CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
IF DEW POINTS MIX OUT AS SOME OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW...THEY
COULD END UP EVEN LOWER. HAVE LOWERED MIN RH FORECAST AS A
RESULT...BUT MOST AREAS REMAIN ABOVE 25 PERCENT. THAT SAID...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RH GOES LOWER. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING
HEIGHTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY.
WILL UPDATE FWF TO INCLUDE THIS INFORMATION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CSH/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH
FIRE WEATHER...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
609 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-181015-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
609 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. A FROST ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED IF THE FORECAST DOES NOT CHANGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-181015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
609 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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