Red Flag Warning 22, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 081940
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-082045-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FW.W.0022.000000T0000Z-070509T0000Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING. 

ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA HAS ALLOWED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO RECOVER INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH ADDITIONAL RECOVERY EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS THUS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

GERAPETRITIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
743 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE
MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CIRCULATION AROUND THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS FAR WEST AS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN
IMPACT ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
LATE THIS WEEK...LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP COASTAL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
COAST. A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE MOVES IN TONIGHT. THIS
SECOND ROUND OF MOISTURE IS MORE COPIOUS BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LIFT. THEREFORE WILL INCREASE CLOUDS BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT SPEEDS ACTUALLY A LITTLE
LOWER THAN MONDAY.

THICKNESSES TODAY ARE WARMER THAN MONDAY. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED TO DAY HIGHS A TOUCH WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONCE AGAIN THE NAM SOLUTION WILL BE FAVORED DURING THE FIRST 24
HOURS. BEYOND 48 HRS...THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS ARE FAVORED FOR
POSITION OF THE ATLANTIC LOW.

BEGINNING WED MORNING...THE CENTER OF THE ATLANTIC LOW WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY BY THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THE
CIRCULATION WILL KEEP WEAK SFC RIDGING NOSING INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NE. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILL COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SREF AND MOS POPS INDICATE
THAT A FEW SHRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR WED AFTERNOON.
THE SFC PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE WED NIGHT...POPS WILL FALL
TO A SCHC.

ON THURSDAY...WEAK OMEGA RIDGING WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A SMALL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AROUND H6...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN WEAK CAPPING. MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER...MTN RIDGES MAY SEE ISO SHRA AND TSRA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAX AROUND 80 EAST OF THE MTNS AND
MID 70S IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE
ATLANTIC LOW WEAKENING OVER FL. IT APPEARS THAT THE H5 RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL FLATTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
S/W ON FRI. AS THIS WAVE RIPPLES EAST...INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT SCT MTN TOP
CONVECTION WILL RESPOND TO THE INSTABILITY AND PASSING DISTURBANCE.
I WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY.

DECENT MOISTURE AND A WEAKLY DEFINED RIBBON OF VORT WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL QPF REMAINS VERY LIGHT AND
MOS POPS REMAINS IN THE LOW CHC RANGE. I WILL KEEP A MENTION OF MTN
SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO AT
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LOWS AROUND 60S AND HIGHS IN THE L80S.
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST BAND OF MOISTURE SPINNING AROUND THE DEEP COASTAL LOW IS
MOVING INTO THE CWFA ATTM. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCLT FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL VFR HEIGHTS MOVE IN. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
VFR CIG AT KHKY/KGSP BY AFTERNOON...BUT BULK OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE EAST. SECOND WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE
SOURCE REGION. AS TODAY...KCLT WILL BE THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE ANY
RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL HAPPEN
BEFORE 12Z. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT SPEEDS AND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN MONDAY. KAVL THE EXCEPTION AS
FLOW NOT CONDUCIVE FOR GUSTS THERE.

ANY RESTRICTIONS IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD WILL BE DEPENDANT ON EXACT
TRACK OF COASTAL LOW. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW VFR TO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MOISTENS THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP COASTAL LOW MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE AREA. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS DEW POINTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN 00Z MODELS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NC MOUNTAINS AND NE GA. THIS COULD MEAN RH VALUES DROPPING TO
25 OR BELOW. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AND
COORDINATE WITH USFS IN GA FOR POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING.
ELSEWHERE RH WILL BE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED...THEY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RWH
FIRE WEATHER...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-090745-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
334 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.