Red Flag Warning 20, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2007

.UPDATE...
&&

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD OVERNIGHT. A LITTLE BIT THICKER CIRRUS
BLOWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM UPSTREAM UPPER LOW. UPDATED
THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BUMPED UP MINIMUM
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO GENERALLY NORTH OF I-40.

.FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SLOWLY REINFORCE
THE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO AROUND 50 IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WARM TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AROUND
50 WILL RESULT IN MAINLY U20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THE 50 PERCENT IF RED FLAG CRITERIA
WILL BE MET IN NE GA. THE MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 232 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2007/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE SHORT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH WED AS FLAT UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
THEN OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTH
IN IT/S WAKE. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN NC BY LATE WED.
THUS...AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WED AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCATTERD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND DRY
SOIL CONDITIONS WENT LOWER THAN CONSENSUS MOS FOR MINIMUM TEMPS
IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT...THOUGH NOT AS COOL LAST NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL FLIRT AGAIN
WITH RECORDS...BUT MY CURRENT FORECAST HAS TEMPERATURES COMING UP
JUST SHY OF THE RECORDS WHICH ARE...90 AT GSP...91 AT CLT. I WENT
A LITTLE ABOVE CONSENSUS MOS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF BOTH
GSP AND CLT REACHED 90 ON WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SINKS S INTO N PART OF CWA WED NIGHT...WITH
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SPREADING S ACROSS THE
AREA THU. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 5-10 DEG COOLER IN THE S CWA TO
NEARLY 15 DEG COOLER ACROSS THE NC N FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT
THU. HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH S ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE
MTNS FRI INTO SAT...PUSHING THE FRONTAL ZONE SW AND PUTTING THE
AREA INTO A COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. WITH MCLDY SKIES AND COOL
NE FLOW...HI TEMPS OUTSIDE MTNS FRI INTO WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 IN S ZONES TO MID 60S N. COOLER...DRYER NE FLOW WILL PUSH
THE DEEPER MOISTURE SW INTO GA AND CNTRL SC AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUN-TUE.

AVIATION /19Z-18Z/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLEAR SKY OVER THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z ON WED
EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE HIGH LEVEL CI. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.

FIRE WEATHER...
AS EXPECTED DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPED AGAIN TODAY WHICH ALLOWED
DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. THANKFULLY
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT. I AM EXPECTING THAT DEWPOINTS ON WED
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE LOWER THAN MODEL/MOS GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE MIXING LAYER SHOULD REACH AT
LEAST 800MB (AROUND 6000FT) WED AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN CHECK DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...COMPUTED RHS NOT AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
DEWPOINT FORECAST INDICATES MINIMUM RH IN THE 25-30% RANGE WED
AFTERNOON EXCEPT AROUND 25% FOR NE GA WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER
RED FLAG WARNING WED AFTERNOON...IF CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS UP.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     SCZ001>008-010>013-019.

&&

SHORT TERM...KRENTZ
FIRE WEATHER...DIXON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1138 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ009-014-030345-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-YORK-CHESTER-
1138 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ001>008-010>013-019-030345-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
1138 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2007

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.