Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 292348
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
748 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-300100-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-070430T0000Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
748 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.
A FEW AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA MAY SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS REMAIN BELOW 25 PERCENT UNTIL 9 PM. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE RECOVERED TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT THIS
HOUR. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DECREASE TO 5 MPH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. 

$$

NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1002 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED WITH SUNSET AND DECREASING MOISTURE. SECONDARY
SHORT WAVE DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA IN UPPER TROF THIS EVENING
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN AREA OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH. THAT
SAID...TAIL OF THE WAVE AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
MOUNTAINS. HAVE RETAINED THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT REMOVED FOR THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE A
DRY NIGHT IN STORE. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES ON SAT PIX...HAVE
DRAMATICALLY REDUCED CLOUDS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL STILL
SEE SOME CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD COVER. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWS AND WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 232 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2007/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VORT MAX CURRENTLY APPROACHING NC MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO THE
NC NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AS THEY MOVE EAST
INTO THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...DESPITE GOOD DPVA. THEREFORE....MAIN
EFFECT MOST AREAS WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING IN NVA
BEHIND SHORT WAVE. WILL SCALE BACK POPS QUICKLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALTHOUGH GUSTY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
LOOK TO BE BELOW LAKE WIND CRITERIA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS FORECAST BY THE
MODELS TO CLIP THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT WILL
HAVE EVEN LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SO POPS ONLY IN 20% RANGE OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. USED A MOS BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
CONTINUING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND NEARLY FULL SUN WILL PRODUCE A WARM
DAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEMPS MAXING OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE 60S AND 70S.

HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR GOING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY WARM FCST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CWFA PROGGED TO COME UNDER FRONT SIDE OF
APPROACHING S/WV RIDGE ON MONDAY...THE AXIS OF WHICH TRANSLATES
ATOP THE REGION AND FLATTENS SOME ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TIMING OF COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWFA REMAINS ROUGHLY
ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT INITIAL SURGE OF ANY COOLER AIR REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE WITH THIS WEAKLY FORCED FRONT...AND WILL KEEP MAXES ON
THE WARM SIDE. 28/12 UTC RUN OF THE OP GFS PROGGING MOISTURE BAND TO
SAG INTO NW NC WED AFTERNOON WITHIN WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS...AND WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION ALIVE DURING THIS TIME.

AFOREMENTIONED FRONT EXPECTED TO BACKDOOR ACRS THE CWFA WED NITE...
SETTING US UP FOR A NOTABLY COOLER AND CLOUDIER DAY WITHIN THE
EASTERLY SFC FLOW. WEAK WAA FLOW ABOVE DAMMED SFC LAYER EXPECTED
TO PROMOTE A MARGINALLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FWIW...THE LATEST
GFS PROGS AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED LLVL UPGLIDE
FLOW FOR FRIDAY...AND PERFECT PROGGING THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS PACKAGE.

AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
VIGOROUS VORT MAX WILL SWING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN AFFECT FOR TAF SITES WILL BE CEILINGS IN THE
4500-6000 FT RANGE FROM ABOUT 19Z-23Z. EXPECT RAPID CLEARING BEHIND
THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SKC ALL TAF SITES BY
00Z...EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME LEFT OVER SCT CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT AT
KAVL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AT KAVL AND APPROACHING 20 KTS OTHER
SITES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z.

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING
LAYER WILL PRODUCE VERY DRY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND IN NE GA. SEE NO REASON WHY DRYER AIR AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER WILL NOT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS LOWERS DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S WHICH RESULTS IN A
LARGE SWATH OF RHS IN THE 20-25% RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. FYI...I AM FORECASTING DEWPOINTS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN MODEL/MAV DEWPOINTS ON SUNDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
IN NE GA BASED ON ABOVE REASONING. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVELY STRONG BUT COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES. SINCE
GA CRITERIA IS EITHER/OR FOR LOW RHS AND WIND WILL GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NE GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GA. LAND
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS CONCUR.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-
     029.

NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
238 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-291845-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
238 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE WEATHER WATCH

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-291845-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
238 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LG