Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 240103
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
903 PM EDT MON APR 23 2007

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-240215-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070424T0100Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-
903 PM EDT MON APR 23 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS
RECOVERED INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS HOUR...AND WIND
GUSTS HAVE ABATED WITH SUNSET.

$$

HG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE I/VE RAISED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WHICH
MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR LOCAL THICKNESS SCHEME. ALSO INCREASED
WINDS A FEW KNOTS AND UPPED GUSTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RECOVER FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL RESULT IN LOWER
DEWPOINTS THAN PROJECTED BY MOS IN THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT...SO I LOWERED TD/S A BIT THERE AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NC MOUNTAINS AND ALL
POINTS TO THE EAST. FUELS ARE VERY DRY...AND WHILE WE MAY NOT HIT
TECHNICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA EVERYWHERE...IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 258 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOSTLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE W BUT STILL EXPECT MCLR SKIES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SO TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH
AROUND 80 FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S MTNS. SW WINDS
WILL PICK UP ACROSS REGION THIS AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN SFC HIGH OFF COAST AND A SFC TROF MOVING ACROSS UPPER MS AND
OH VALLEYS. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER MTNS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WHILE FLAT UPPER RIDGING GUIDES THESE FEATURES
ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS AGREE ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN H5 FLOW REACHING THE WESTERN
ZONES BY AROUND 12Z AND THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE LOW LEVEL FORCING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO APPEAR WEAK AS
LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS SLOW AND WEAK AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS.
THE NAM IS GETTING A BIT INTERESTING WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES
IN THE 250 M2/S2 RANGE...BUT THIS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN UPPER FORCING HAS MOVED EAST AND LLVL LIFT BEGINS TO SUBSIDE.
SO...ISOLATED GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK GOOD EMBEDDED IN
SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS. BUFKIT IS ADVERTISING DECENT MOMENTUM
TRANSFERS PER THE MORE DYNAMIC NAM AND HAVE INCLUDED GUSTY
CONDITIONS NEARING 25 MPH ACROSS THE NON MOUNTAIN AREAS. POP
CONFIGURATION IS IN GOOD SHAPE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES. MINI RIDGE AND DECENT SUBSIDENCE CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CLOUD COVER GENERALLY
SCATTERED...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TS POPPING UP IN LATE DAY
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM REACHING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE CWFA
REMAINS IN LARGE SCALE WARM SECTOR.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEPER...MORE VERTICALLY COUPLED SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA THURSDAY
AND H5 HEIGHTS FALL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRAVERSING UPPER H5 LOW.
INSTABILITY LOOKS A BIT WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST SBCAPE NOT
DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 00Z FRI. ACCORDING TO GFSKIT SOUNDINGS...CAPE
VALUES SHOULD APPROACH NEAR 300 J/KG AND THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR
A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP AND CONSIDERING LOWERING FREEZING
LEVELS...HAIL STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN PHASE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FOR MUCH OF AN ORGANIZED MCS
THREAT...BUT THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP HAS POTENTIAL AND WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LONGWAVE TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAVERING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH NORTHERLY AND A DRY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED.

AVIATION /07Z-06Z/...
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG VCNTY KAND AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE
EXPECT SCT CIRRUS THIS MORNING...THEN SCT CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW AT 10-12 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20.

FIRE WEATHER...
WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SW LATER TODAY AND WINDS
NOT FCST TO QUITE MEET CRITERIA...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT
LOOKING AS GOOD FOR THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTN IN OUR
CWA. SINCE CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE AND CRITERIA ONLY NEED TO BE MET
FOR ONE HOUR...WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH UP UNTIL CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS CAN BE REEVALUATED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-501>510.

SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
FIRE WEATHER...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-SCZ001>014-
019-240900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
459 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
FAIRLY STRONG...POSSIBLY EVEN REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-240900-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
459 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE WEATHER WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
FAIRLY STRONG...POSSIBLY EVEN REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KRENTZ