Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 110240
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
940 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2007

...VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-111100-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0001.070211T1700Z-070212T0000Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
940 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA FROM
12 PM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY....FROM RABUN COUNTY TO ELBERT COUNTY.

A DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNNY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY CAUSE FUELS TO DRY OUT ENOUGH FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO 5 TO 10 MPH.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE
FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$
07

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 111418
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
918 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2007

...VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-120000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0001.070211T1700Z-070212T0000Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
918 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA UNTIL
7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SUNNY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH THE DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY CAUSE FUELS TO DRY OUT ENOUGH
FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO 5 TO 10 MPH.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE
FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
254 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
CIRRUS COULD PRODUCE VERY LIMITED SKY COVER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT AND DWPT DEPRESSIONS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY 10 DEGREES WIDE AS WELL. THE CLASSIC RADIATIONAL
PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS IN THE MTNS AND
LOW 20S EAST. SLOW WAA ON SUNDAY SHOULD YIELD IMPRESSIVE DAY TIME
WARMING RATES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE U40S TO AROUND 50 EAST
OF THE MTNS. THE MTNS WILL ALSO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
DAY...HOWEVER...I WILL FAVOR TEMPS COOLER THAN MOS GIVEN THE TOO
WARM TREND NOTICED IN RECENT DAYS.

GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF STORM SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE QUITE CLOSE THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. CWFA
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS LOW MOVES TO NEAR MEMPHIS WITH WARM
FRONT FROM THERE TO NEAR NC/VA BORDER. NAM/CANADIAN SLOWER WITH
LOW MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY REACHING CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY 00Z
WED...WHILE GFS HAS THE LOW TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK REACHING
THE UPSTATE BY THEN. GFS JUMPS THE LOW TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS BY
06Z WED THEN FURTHER OFF SHORE BY 12Z. CANADIAN TAKES THE LOW
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PRECIP SHOWN IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THROUGH
THIS TIME...POP VALUES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEST. DRIER NUMBERS ARE SEEN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST. 09Z SREF AND
12Z MREF CONFIRM THIS. THEREFORE HAVE POP INCREASING TO LIKELY
MOUNTAINS AND LOW CHC PIEDMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE CATEGORICAL POP TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
HOWEVER ONLY HAVE LIKELY FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN THE MODEL CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN. KEEP A PERIOD OF LIKELY POP
TUE EVENING THEN CHC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL BE SOME NW FLOW SNOW
SHOWERS WED AND HAVE CHC TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

12Z RUNS AND LATEST ENSEMBLES SHOW THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS WELL
INTO THE RAIN CATEGORY THROUGH 00Z WED. BEST P-TYPE CATEGORY FROM
THE SREF ALSO RAIN. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO JUST ANOTHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY. THICKNESSES/TEMPS COOL
OFF TUE NIGHT...SO WILL BE A P-TYPE CHANGE OVER BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.
LOOKS LIKE A RAIN TO POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN THEN SNOW CHANGE.
HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WED NITE AND HOLDS ON
THROUGH SATURDAY. GULF OR ATLANTIC LOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY...BUT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DRY BUT WELL BELOW
NORMAL FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...
FEW TO SCT STREAKS OF CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY WAVE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AFTER 0Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND SKY SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SUN...GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 KTS. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND LARGE DWPT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD ONLY YIELD LIGHT
FROST TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. COORDINATION WITH USFS IN GA INDICATES THAT FUEL MOISTURE
IS LOW AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS NEEDED. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING
VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.

NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED/RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...NED
FIRE WEATHER...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-111100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
548 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE AREA...AREAS OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS LATER IN MORNING ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG BEFORE ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON
ON MONDAY. ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ACCUMULATE. AS THE LOW PASSES ON TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOWARD THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LACKING.
AFTER THE LOW PASSES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE LOW...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMS